Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: Nardo vs Spjelkavik

Team pages: Nardo · Spjelkavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Nardo1.65

Spjelkavik2.29

1X2

27% 21% 52%

Nardo Draw Spjelkavik

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLLWLL

Spjelkavik 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Nardo 0–1–2 Spjelkavik (3 last)

Spjelkavik4-2Nardo
Nardo2-2Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik4-1Nardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1431 · Spjelkavik 1510

	Nardo	Draw	Spjelkavik
Our model	27%	21%	52%
Market	27%	21%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spjelkavik (rating 1431 vs 1510).
H2H favours Spjelkavik: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Spjelkavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	2.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	3.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.20

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +32’	3.30	4.20	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 0–1–2 Spjelkavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Spjelkavik	4-2 HT 1-0	Nardo
30/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	2-2 HT 2-0	Spjelkavik
07/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Spjelkavik	4-1 HT 2-0	Nardo

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	17	11	3	3	46	18	36
2	Strindheim	17	10	3	4	42	27	33
3	Melhus	17	9	5	3	43	22	32
4	Herd	17	8	3	6	41	26	27
5	Rosenborg 2	16	7	4	5	34	26	25
6	Spjelkavik	16	6	4	6	31	31	22
7	Molde 2	16	6	4	6	46	48	22
8	Byåsen	16	6	4	6	31	34	22
9	Kvik Trondheim	17	6	3	8	31	42	21
10	Ranheim 2	16	5	4	7	40	55	19
11	NTNUI	17	4	6	7	22	35	18
12	Aalesunds FK 2	16	5	1	10	29	45	16
13	Nardo	16	4	2	10	29	38	14
14	Orkla	16	4	2	10	29	47	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Spjelkavik
Molde 2	3-0 W	3-1 W
Rosenborg 2	1-1 D	1-2 L
Strindheim	1-4 L	0-4 L
Byåsen	2-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nardo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nardo

LLDLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
13/06	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
30/05	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
14/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	4	5	L

Spjelkavik

LWWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
01/08	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
25/07	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	15	3	L
13/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	4-2	–	–	W
30/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
22/05	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Spjelkavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spjelkavik win (52%). Probabilities: Nardo 27%, draw 21%, Spjelkavik 52%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Spjelkavik?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Nardo 1.65 · Spjelkavik 2.29), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Spjelkavik?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.