Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: Herd vs Melhus

Team pages: Herd · Melhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Herd1.69

Melhus1.87

1X2

35% 23% 42%

Herd Draw Melhus

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Herd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLLLWL

Melhus 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDWWL

Head-to-head

Herd 0–1 Melhus (1 last)

Melhus2-0Herd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herd 1483 · Melhus 1510

	Herd	Draw	Melhus
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	35%	22%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herd	Melhus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X4.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +45’	2.55	4.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herd 0–0–1 Melhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Melhus	2-0 HT 1-0	Herd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	17	11	3	3	46	18	36
2	Strindheim	17	10	3	4	42	27	33
3	Melhus	17	9	5	3	43	22	32
4	Herd	17	8	3	6	41	26	27
5	Rosenborg 2	16	7	4	5	34	26	25
6	Spjelkavik	16	6	4	6	31	31	22
7	Molde 2	16	6	4	6	46	48	22
8	Byåsen	16	6	4	6	31	34	22
9	Kvik Trondheim	17	6	3	8	31	42	21
10	Ranheim 2	16	5	4	7	40	55	19
11	NTNUI	17	4	6	7	22	35	18
12	Aalesunds FK 2	16	5	1	10	29	45	16
13	Nardo	16	4	2	10	29	38	14
14	Orkla	16	4	2	10	29	47	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herd	Melhus
Kvik Trondheim	5-1 W	1-1 D
Nardo	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Herd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herd

LDWWDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
15/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	9-0	6	2	W
10/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/07	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/07	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
27/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
20/06	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
13/06	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-1	7	5	W
30/05	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
26/05	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	14	9	L

Melhus

WWLDLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
08/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	5-3	8-3	3	3	W
03/08	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
25/07	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
25/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
19/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/06	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
30/05	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/05	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herd vs Melhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melhus win (42%). Probabilities: Herd 35%, draw 23%, Melhus 42%.

How many goals are expected in Herd vs Melhus?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Herd 1.69 · Melhus 1.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Herd vs Melhus?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.