Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Hinna vs Åkra

Team pages: Hinna · Åkra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

Hinna2.65

Åkra1.54

1X2

61% 18% 21%

Hinna Draw Åkra

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Hinna 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWLWLL

Åkra 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Hinna 0–1–1 Åkra (2 last)

Åkra4-3Hinna
Hinna1-1Åkra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hinna 1467 · Åkra 1405

	Hinna	Draw	Åkra
Our model	61%	19%	20%
Market	61%	18%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hinna (rating 1467 vs 1405).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hinna	Åkra
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.9	1.2 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X5.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	3.60 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.63 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:33 +26’	1.60	4.75	3.60
02:09 +4’	1.57▼	4.75	3.75▲
05:21 +2’	1.48▼	5.00▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +1’	1.43	4.47	4.90
03:21 +123’	1.46▲	4.43▼	4.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hinna 0–1–1 Åkra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Åkra	4-3 HT 2-1	Hinna
07/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Hinna	1-1 HT 1-0	Åkra

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	19	12	5	2	50	25	41
2	Vindbjart	19	11	2	6	47	23	35
3	Mandalskameratene	19	10	4	5	45	33	34
4	Varhaug	19	9	5	5	35	27	32
5	Flekkerøy	19	10	2	7	40	33	32
6	Viking 2	19	9	4	6	48	26	31
7	Brodd	19	8	2	9	37	38	26
8	Stabaek 2	19	8	2	9	41	45	26
9	Vag FK	19	7	1	11	27	34	22
10	Staal Jørpeland	19	6	4	9	37	46	22
11	Odd II	19	6	4	9	35	44	22
12	Haugesund 2	19	6	3	10	36	54	21
13	Hinna	19	5	4	10	34	55	19
14	Åkra	19	4	2	13	25	54	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hinna	Åkra
Madla	1-4 L	1-3 L
Vindbjart	0-2 L	0-6 L
Vag FK	3-0 W	2-3 L
Odd II	2-3 L	1-2 L
Flekkerøy	3-2 W	1-4 L
Varhaug	5-3 W	1-2 L
Staal Jørpeland	1-1 D	4-3 W
Brodd	3-3 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Hinna (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hinna

LDDLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-4	1-4	8	5	L
05/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
31/07	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	5-3	–	–	W
25/07	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-7	3	2	L
25/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
19/06	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-3	1	4	D
14/06	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	3	2	L

Åkra

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
05/09	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
30/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-3	0-6	4	9	L
07/08	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
01/08	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
26/07	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
26/06	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
21/06	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hinna vs Åkra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hinna win (61%). Probabilities: Hinna 61%, draw 18%, Åkra 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hinna vs Åkra?

The model expects 4.19 goals (Hinna 2.65 · Åkra 1.54), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hinna vs Åkra?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.