Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 06/09, 17:30

Prediction: Strømsgodset 2 vs Finnsnes IL

Team pages: Strømsgodset 2 · Finnsnes IL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Strømsgodset 21.61

Finnsnes IL1.67

1X2

37% 24% 39%

Strømsgodset 2 Draw Finnsnes IL

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Strømsgodset 2 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Finnsnes IL 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Strømsgodset 2 0–1 Finnsnes IL (1 last)

Finnsnes IL2-1Strømsgodset 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Strømsgodset 2 1440 · Finnsnes IL 1528

	Strømsgodset 2	Draw	Finnsnes IL
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	38%	22%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Finnsnes IL (rating 1440 vs 1528).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Strømsgodset 2	Finnsnes IL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.3	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +2’	2.40	4.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Strømsgodset 2 0–0–1 Finnsnes IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Finnsnes IL	2-1 HT 0-1	Strømsgodset 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Skedsmo	17	13	0	4	39	23	39
2	Fløya	18	10	3	5	47	30	33
3	Finnsnes IL	17	10	2	5	34	24	32
4	Harstad	17	9	3	5	56	29	30
5	Alta	17	8	5	4	42	27	29
6	Fauske/Sprint	18	7	4	7	49	60	25
7	Lillestrøm 2	17	8	0	9	51	39	24
8	Skjetten	17	7	3	7	39	36	24
9	Kongsvinger 2	17	7	2	8	34	43	23
10	Strømsgodset 2	17	6	2	9	31	36	20
11	Skjervøy	16	6	2	8	27	44	20
12	Bossekop	17	4	3	10	29	52	15
13	Tromso 2	17	3	5	9	30	37	14
14	IL Ulfstind	18	4	2	12	32	60	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Strømsgodset 2	Finnsnes IL
Bossekop	1-2 L	2-3 L
Skedsmo	0-1 L	1-0 W
Kongsvinger 2	3-2 W	1-0 W
Lillestrøm 2	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Finnsnes IL (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Strømsgodset 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
10/08	Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-2	3-2	3	2	W
02/08	Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
25/07	Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
28/06	Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	5-1	7	1	W
21/06	Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
13/06	Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	2-2	9	4	D
01/06	Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	Lillestrøm 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	1-3	1	1	L

Finnsnes IL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Lillestrøm 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
08/08	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
02/08	Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
25/07	Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
28/06	Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
20/06	Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
14/06	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
31/05	Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/05	IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Strømsgodset 2 vs Finnsnes IL?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Finnsnes IL win (39%). Probabilities: Strømsgodset 2 37%, draw 24%, Finnsnes IL 39%.

How many goals are expected in Strømsgodset 2 vs Finnsnes IL?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Strømsgodset 2 1.61 · Finnsnes IL 1.67), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Strømsgodset 2 vs Finnsnes IL?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.