Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 14/09, 19:00
Prediction: Skedsmo vs Lillestrøm 2
Team pages: Skedsmo · Lillestrøm 2
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.38Total
Skedsmo2.69
Lillestrøm 21.69
1X2
Skedsmo
Draw
Lillestrøm 2
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Skedsmo
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Lillestrøm 2
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Skedsmo
3–3
Lillestrøm 2
(6 last)
- Lillestrøm 21-2Skedsmo
- Skedsmo2-1Lillestrøm 2
- Lillestrøm 25-0Skedsmo
- Lillestrøm 25-0Skedsmo
- Skedsmo4-0Lillestrøm 2
- Lillestrøm 25-0Skedsmo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Skedsmo 1570 · Lillestrøm 2 1485
| Skedsmo | Draw | Lillestrøm 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| Market | 59% | 18% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Skedsmo (rating 1570 vs 1485).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Skedsmo | Lillestrøm 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.1 | 4.2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Skedsmo 3–0–3 Lillestrøm 2
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Lillestrøm 2 | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Skedsmo |
| 16/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Skedsmo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lillestrøm 2 |
| 22/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Lillestrøm 2 | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Skedsmo |
| 25/09/23 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Lillestrøm 2 | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Skedsmo |
| 10/07/23 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Skedsmo | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Lillestrøm 2 |
| 27/08/18 Norway Division 3 Group 2 | Lillestrøm 2 | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Skedsmo |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 23 | 40 |
| 2 | Harstad | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 30 | 36 |
| 3 | Fløya | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 31 | 36 |
| 4 | Alta | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 44 | 28 | 33 |
| 5 | Finnsnes IL | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 31 | 32 |
| 6 | Lillestrøm 2 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 27 |
| 7 | Fauske/Sprint | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 60 | 25 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 24 |
| 9 | Strømsgodset 2 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 37 | 23 |
| 10 | Kongsvinger 2 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 51 | 23 |
| 11 | Skjervøy | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 45 | 23 |
| 12 | Bossekop | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 63 | 15 |
| 13 | Tromso 2 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 38 | 14 |
| 14 | IL Ulfstind | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 66 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Skedsmo | Lillestrøm 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Alta | 0-0 D | 2-4 L |
| Tromso 2 | 3-1 W | 5-3 W |
| Fauske/Sprint | 5-3 W | 3-4 L |
| Finnsnes IL | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Kongsvinger 2 | 3-1 W | 4-5 L |
| Skjetten | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Fløya | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Skedsmo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Skedsmo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-1 | 5-3 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Lillestrøm 2
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
3-0 | 11-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/08 | Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
4-0 | 5-3 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
4-0 | 10-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Skedsmo vs Lillestrøm 2?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Skedsmo win (59%). Probabilities: Skedsmo 59%, draw 18%, Lillestrøm 2 23%.
How many goals are expected in Skedsmo vs Lillestrøm 2?
The model expects 4.38 goals (Skedsmo 2.69 · Lillestrøm 2 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Skedsmo vs Lillestrøm 2?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.