Football · USA NWSL Women · 30/07, 04:00

Prediction: Bay FC (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Bay FC (W)1.15

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)1.21

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Bay FC (W) Draw NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bay FC (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLDWWL

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Bay FC (W) 0–1–4 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (5 last)

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)3-0Bay FC (W)
Bay FC (W)1-1NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)2-1Bay FC (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (rating 1484 vs 1548).
H2H favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W): 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bay FC (W)	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.78

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.83 → 4.42▼	Pinn 4.42
X	3.72 → 3.64▼	Pinn 3.64
2	1.63 → 1.69▲	Pinn 1.69

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16	4.83	3.72	1.63
15:33	4.84▲	3.80▲	1.61▼
17:16	4.42▼	3.64▼	1.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay FC (W) 0–1–4 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	3-0 HT 3-0	Bay FC (W)
22/09/25 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
22/06/25 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Bay FC (W)
06/10/24 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	5-1 HT 1-1	Bay FC (W)
25/05/24 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	16	9	4	3	21	12	31
2	Washington Spirit (W)	15	9	3	3	24	12	30
3	San Diego Wave (W)	16	9	2	5	23	17	29
4	Portland Thorns (W)	17	8	4	5	27	20	28
5	Utah Royals (W)	15	8	3	4	22	16	27
6	Kansas City Current (W)	15	8	1	6	23	22	25
7	Orlando Pride (W)	17	7	2	8	22	21	23
8	Angel City FC (W)	14	7	1	6	22	14	22
9	North Carolina Courage (W)	14	6	3	5	20	19	21
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	14	5	4	5	21	19	19
11	Houston Dash (W)	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
12	Bay FC (W)	15	5	3	7	16	20	18
13	Reign FC (W)	14	5	2	7	15	19	17
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	16	4	4	8	17	23	16
15	Chicago Stars (W)	16	4	0	12	8	31	12
16	Racing Louisville FC (W)	14	2	2	10	16	27	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bay FC (W)	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Houston Dash (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Portland Thorns (W)	0-2 L	2-2 D
Utah Royals (W)	0-0 D	3-1 W
San Diego Wave (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bay FC (W)

WDDLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
11/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	0	2	W
05/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
30/05	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	4	0	L
24/05	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
21/05	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
16/05	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
10/05	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
04/05	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

WLLWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
18/07	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	3-2	4	2	W
16/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
05/07	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/06	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
31/05	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
24/05	Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
21/05	Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
16/05	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bay FC (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) win (36%). Probabilities: Bay FC (W) 33%, draw 31%, NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 36%.

How many goals are expected in Bay FC (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Bay FC (W) 1.15 · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bay FC (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.