Football · South Korea K League 1 · 25/07, 12:30
Prediction: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.3
Daejeon Hana Citizen1.43
1X2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Draw
Daejeon Hana Citizen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Daejeon Hana Citizen
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
0–3–3
Daejeon Hana Citizen
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1442 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1507
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Draw | Daejeon Hana Citizen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Hana Citizen (rating 1442 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Daejeon Hana Citizen: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Hana Citizen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–3–3 Daejeon Hana Citizen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 30/11/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
| 31/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 18/06/25 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 19/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
| 25/08/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Anyang | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Incheon Utd | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Bucheon | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Jeju United | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Incheon Utd | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Ulsan HD | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Seoul | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 5 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Daejeon Hana Citizen (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 21/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
Daejeon Hana Citizen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 12/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Daejeon Hana Citizen win (39%). Probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%, draw 28%, Daejeon Hana Citizen 39%.
How many goals are expected in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.3 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.