Football · South Korea K League 1 · 26/07, 12:30
Prediction: FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
FC Seoul1.81
Ulsan HD1.12
1X2
FC Seoul
Draw
Ulsan HD
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Seoul
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Ulsan HD
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Seoul
3–2–1
Ulsan HD
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Seoul 1574 · Ulsan HD 1446
| FC Seoul | Draw | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Seoul (rating 1574 vs 1446).
- H2H favours FC Seoul: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Seoul | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 1.1 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Seoul 3–2–1 Ulsan HD
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-4 HT 0-3 | FC Seoul |
| 24/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 20/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 05/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 10/11/24 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 13/07/24 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Anyang | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Incheon Utd | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Seoul | Ulsan HD |
|---|---|---|
| Bucheon | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Gangwon FC | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Incheon Utd | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Gwangju FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Jeju United | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Seoul (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Seoul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Seoul win (52%). Probabilities: FC Seoul 52%, draw 26%, Ulsan HD 22%.
How many goals are expected in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?
The model expects 2.93 goals (FC Seoul 1.81 · Ulsan HD 1.12), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.