Football · Sweden Elitettan · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Elfsborg (W) vs Gamla Upsala SK (W)

Team pages: Elfsborg (W) · Gamla Upsala SK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Elfsborg (W)2.35

Gamla Upsala SK (W)0.55

1X2

78% 15% 7%

Elfsborg (W) Draw Gamla Upsala SK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWDW

Gamla Upsala SK (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Elfsborg (W) 2–1 Gamla Upsala SK (W) (3 last)

Gamla Upsala SK (W)0-2Elfsborg (W)
Elfsborg (W)2-1Gamla Upsala SK (W)
Gamla Upsala SK (W)2-1Elfsborg (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elfsborg (W) 1600 · Gamla Upsala SK (W) 1445

	Elfsborg (W)	Draw	Gamla Upsala SK (W)
Our model	77%	17%	6%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (W) (rating 1600 vs 1445).
H2H favours Elfsborg (W): 2-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg (W)	Gamla Upsala SK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.2	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.93

2 (+2.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +9’	1.14	7.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg (W) 2–0–1 Gamla Upsala SK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden Elitettan	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Elfsborg (W)
20/09/25 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Gamla Upsala SK (W)
17/05/25 Sweden Elitettan	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	Elfsborg (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	21	14	6	1	41	12	48
2	KIF Orebro (W)	21	15	2	4	50	25	47
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	20	12	6	2	50	23	42
4	Linköpings FC (W)	21	13	3	5	39	28	42
5	Umea IK (W)	20	10	4	6	35	24	34
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	21	9	5	7	30	31	32
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	20	8	4	8	28	30	28
8	Jitex BK (W)	21	7	6	8	28	30	27
9	Orebro SK (W)	21	7	5	9	26	32	26
10	Enskede IK (W)	21	6	4	11	29	39	22
11	Alingsås IF (W)	20	4	7	9	17	27	19
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	21	4	5	12	22	35	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	21	2	5	14	20	56	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	21	2	2	17	22	45	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg (W)	Gamla Upsala SK (W)
Trelleborgs FF (W)	4-2 W	0-1 L
Sandvikens IF (W)	1-0 W	1-3 L
Umea IK (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Enskede IK (W)	5-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elfsborg (W)

DWWLWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-1	4-2	8	1	W
26/09	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-1	14	1	W
21/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
15/08	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	5-0	6	1	W
08/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
01/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Gamla Upsala SK (W)

LDLLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/09	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
13/09	Orebro SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
29/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-1	4-4	–	–	D
02/08	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg (W) vs Gamla Upsala SK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Elfsborg (W) 78%, draw 15%, Gamla Upsala SK (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg (W) vs Gamla Upsala SK (W)?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Elfsborg (W) 2.35 · Gamla Upsala SK (W) 0.55), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg (W) vs Gamla Upsala SK (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.