Football · Sweden Elitettan · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Orebro SK (W) vs Elfsborg (W)

Team pages: Orebro SK (W) · Elfsborg (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Orebro SK (W)1.01

Elfsborg (W)2.08

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Orebro SK (W) Draw Elfsborg (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLWWL

Elfsborg (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Orebro SK (W) 0–3 Elfsborg (W) (3 last)

Elfsborg (W)2-0Orebro SK (W)
Orebro SK (W)0-1Elfsborg (W)
Elfsborg (W)2-1Orebro SK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK (W) 1424 · Elfsborg (W) 1603

	Orebro SK (W)	Draw	Elfsborg (W)
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (W) (rating 1424 vs 1603).
H2H favours Elfsborg (W): 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK (W)	Elfsborg (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2	4.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	1.38 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:53 +22’	6.00	4.50	1.38
13:08 +9’	5.25▼	4.20▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK (W) 0–0–3 Elfsborg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Orebro SK (W)
13/09/25 Sweden Elitettan	Orebro SK (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Elfsborg (W)
10/05/25 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	Orebro SK (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	22	15	6	1	43	12	51
2	KIF Orebro (W)	22	16	2	4	57	27	50
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	22	14	6	2	56	24	48
4	Linköpings FC (W)	22	13	4	5	39	28	43
5	Umea IK (W)	22	11	5	6	37	24	38
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	22	9	5	8	31	34	32
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	22	9	4	9	31	33	31
8	Jitex BK (W)	22	7	6	9	30	37	27
9	Orebro SK (W)	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
10	Enskede IK (W)	22	7	4	11	32	40	25
11	Alingsås IF (W)	22	5	7	10	20	29	22
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	22	4	5	13	22	37	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	22	2	5	15	21	59	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	22	2	2	18	22	47	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK (W)	Elfsborg (W)
IFK Goteborg (W)	0-4 L	1-1 D
BK Hacken (W) II	3-2 W	2-1 W
Linköpings FC (W)	2-0 W	3-2 W
Gamla Upsala SK (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Sandvikens IF (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
KIF Orebro (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orebro SK (W)

DLLDDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
03/10	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
25/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
13/09	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
08/08	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-2	–	–	D

Elfsborg (W)

WWLWDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
03/10	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-1	4-2	8	1	W
26/09	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-1	14	1	W
21/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
15/08	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	5-0	6	1	W
08/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elfsborg (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Orebro SK (W) 17%, draw 22%, Elfsborg (W) 61%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Orebro SK (W) 1.01 · Elfsborg (W) 2.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.