Football · Sweden Elitettan · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Umea IK (W)

Team pages: Trelleborgs FF (W) · Umea IK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Trelleborgs FF (W)1.42

Umea IK (W)1.65

1X2

32% 25% 42%

Trelleborgs FF (W) Draw Umea IK (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Trelleborgs FF (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWWLL

Umea IK (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Trelleborgs FF (W) 2–3 Umea IK (W) (5 last)

Umea IK (W)0-2Trelleborgs FF (W)
Umea IK (W)3-2Trelleborgs FF (W)
Trelleborgs FF (W)0-1Umea IK (W)
Trelleborgs FF (W)3-0Umea IK (W)
Umea IK (W)4-0Trelleborgs FF (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trelleborgs FF (W) 1472 · Umea IK (W) 1582

	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Draw	Umea IK (W)
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umea IK (W) (rating 1472 vs 1582).
H2H favours Umea IK (W): 3-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Umea IK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.6 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:29 +48’	2.75	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Trelleborgs FF (W) 2–0–3 Umea IK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Sweden Elitettan	Umea IK (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Trelleborgs FF (W)
08/11/25 Sweden Elitettan	Umea IK (W)	3-2 HT 0-2	Trelleborgs FF (W)
10/05/25 Sweden Elitettan	Trelleborgs FF (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Umea IK (W)
14/10/23 Sweden Elitettan	Trelleborgs FF (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Umea IK (W)
13/05/23 Sweden Elitettan	Umea IK (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Trelleborgs FF (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	22	15	6	1	43	12	51
2	KIF Orebro (W)	22	16	2	4	57	27	50
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	22	14	6	2	56	24	48
4	Linköpings FC (W)	22	13	4	5	39	28	43
5	Umea IK (W)	22	11	5	6	37	24	38
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	22	9	5	8	31	34	32
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	22	9	4	9	31	33	31
8	Jitex BK (W)	22	7	6	9	30	37	27
9	Orebro SK (W)	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
10	Enskede IK (W)	22	7	4	11	32	40	25
11	Alingsås IF (W)	22	5	7	10	20	29	22
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	22	4	5	13	22	37	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	22	2	5	15	21	59	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	22	2	2	18	22	47	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Umea IK (W)
Enskede IK (W)	1-3 L	5-1 W
Elfsborg (W)	2-4 L	1-1 D
BK Hacken (W) II	2-0 W	2-0 W
Sandvikens IF (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
KIF Orebro (W)	2-2 D	1-2 L
Husqvarna FF (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Gamla Upsala SK (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Umea IK (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trelleborgs FF (W)

DWLLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-2	1-3	10	1	L
03/10	Elfsborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-2	2-4	1	1	L
26/09	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
19/09	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
13/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
05/09	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
16/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-3	4-4	–	–	D

Umea IK (W)

WWWLDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
04/10	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
12/09	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Elfsborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Umea IK (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Trelleborgs FF (W) 32%, draw 25%, Umea IK (W) 42%.

How many goals are expected in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Trelleborgs FF (W) 1.42 · Umea IK (W) 1.65), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.