Prediction: Colorado Switchbacks FC vs Phoenix Rising FC
Expected goals: 2.94 (Colorado Switchbacks FC 1.83 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.11). The model gives 53% home, 25% draw, 22% away. Over 2.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Colorado Switchbacks FC sits at 4-3-3 (W-D-L), while Phoenix Rising FC arrives on a 3-2-5 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Colorado Switchbacks FC won 3 and Phoenix Rising FC 2, with 1 draw.
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | Draw | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colorado Switchbacks FC (rating 1515 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Colorado Switchbacks FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colorado Switchbacks FC 3–1–2 Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 USA USL Cup | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 24/08/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 04/05/25 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 04/08/24 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 14/04/24 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 15/10/23 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Oakland Roots | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | New Mexico United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 16 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Colorado Switchbacks FC | Phoenix Rising FC |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sacramento Republic | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Oakland Roots | 1-0 W | 3-4 L |
| New Mexico United | 4-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Orange County SC | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colorado Switchbacks FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 21/06 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 30/04 | Colorado Rapids USA US Open Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colorado Switchbacks FC win (53%). Probabilities: Colorado Switchbacks FC 53%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising FC 22%.
How many goals are expected in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Colorado Switchbacks FC 1.83 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.