Prediction: Rhode Island FC vs Orange County SC
Expected goals: 3.15 (Rhode Island FC 2.05 · Orange County SC 1.1). The model gives 58% home, 23% draw, 18% away. Over 2.5 goals (56%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Rhode Island FC is 4-3-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Orange County SC 3-3-4 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Rhode Island FC won 0 and Orange County SC 1.
| Rhode Island FC | Draw | Orange County SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rhode Island FC | Orange County SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/90/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 2.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhode Island FC 0–0–1 Orange County SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/24 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Rhode Island FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Oakland Roots | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | New Mexico United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 16 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rhode Island FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Westchester SC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/04 | New England Revolution USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Orange County SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rhode Island FC vs Orange County SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Rhode Island FC win (58%). Probabilities: Rhode Island FC 58%, draw 23%, Orange County SC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Rhode Island FC vs Orange County SC?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Rhode Island FC 2.05 · Orange County SC 1.1), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Rhode Island FC vs Orange County SC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.