Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Leones de Rosario

Team pages: CA Lugano · Leones de Rosario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.86Total

CA Lugano0.88

Leones de Rosario0.98

1X2

31% 34% 36%

CA Lugano Draw Leones de Rosario

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDLWDW

Leones de Rosario 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

CA Lugano 0–1–0 Leones de Rosario (1 last)

Leones de Rosario2-2CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1542 · Leones de Rosario 1512

	CA Lugano	Draw	Leones de Rosario
Our model	30%	35%	35%
Market	31%	32%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 1.86 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Leones de Rosario
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X2.75

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +4’	2.88	2.75	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 0–1–0 Leones de Rosario

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Leones de Rosario	2-2 HT 1-2	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	27	14	7	6	39	22	49
2	Canuelas FC	27	13	9	5	32	20	48
3	Leones de Rosario	27	11	10	6	26	22	43
4	Deportivo Espanol	27	9	14	4	20	14	41
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	27	10	9	8	26	21	39
6	Sportivo Barracas	27	11	5	11	31	26	38
7	General Lamadrid	27	9	10	8	22	25	37
8	CA Atlas	27	9	9	9	22	22	36
9	Central Ballester	27	9	7	11	26	27	34
10	Yupanqui	27	8	9	10	31	31	33
11	El Porvenir	27	6	15	6	22	25	33
12	Fenix	27	6	9	12	19	27	27
13	CA Claypole	27	6	8	13	19	35	26
14	Deportivo Muniz	27	4	10	13	17	32	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Leones de Rosario
Defensores de Cambaceres	2-1 W	2-0 W
Centro Espanol	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

DDWWWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W
12/07	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
04/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Leones de Rosario

LDLDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/07	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/07	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
13/07	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
04/07	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Leones de Rosario?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leones de Rosario win (36%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 31%, draw 34%, Leones de Rosario 36%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Leones de Rosario?

The model expects 1.86 goals (CA Lugano 0.88 · Leones de Rosario 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Leones de Rosario?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.