Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/10, 20:00

Prediction: Leones de Rosario vs Fenix

Team pages: Leones de Rosario · Fenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.79Total

Leones de Rosario1.25

Fenix0.55

1X2

54% 29% 17%

Leones de Rosario Draw Fenix

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones de Rosario 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDDLW

Fenix 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDLLDWLW

Head-to-head

Leones de Rosario 1–0 Fenix (1 last)

Fenix0-1Leones de Rosario

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones de Rosario 1553 · Fenix 1490

	Leones de Rosario	Draw	Fenix
Our model	53%	32%	15%
Market	55%	27%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones de Rosario (rating 1553 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones de Rosario	Fenix
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.30

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +42’	1.61	3.30	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones de Rosario 1–0–0 Fenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Fenix	0-1 HT 0-1	Leones de Rosario

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	31	18	7	6	45	22	61
2	Canuelas FC	31	16	10	5	39	22	58
3	Central Cordoba de Rosario	31	13	10	8	32	22	49
4	Deportivo Espanol	31	11	16	4	25	16	49
5	Leones de Rosario	31	12	12	7	29	24	48
6	General Lamadrid	31	9	13	9	23	27	40
7	Sportivo Barracas	31	11	6	14	32	32	39
8	Central Ballester	31	10	8	13	29	30	38
9	CA Atlas	31	9	10	12	23	27	37
10	El Porvenir	31	7	16	8	26	31	37
11	Yupanqui	31	8	11	12	33	35	35
12	Fenix	31	8	10	13	23	30	34
13	CA Claypole	31	8	9	14	25	39	33
14	Deportivo Muniz	31	6	11	14	22	36	29

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones de Rosario	Fenix
CA Atlas	1-0 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Muniz	2-1 W	1-0 W
Canuelas FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Centro Espanol	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones de Rosario

DWLWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
28/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
20/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
12/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	6	D

Fenix

DWDDLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
27/09	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
21/09	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
14/09	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
31/08	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
24/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
16/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
04/08	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones de Rosario vs Fenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones de Rosario win (54%). Probabilities: Leones de Rosario 54%, draw 29%, Fenix 17%.

How many goals are expected in Leones de Rosario vs Fenix?

The model expects 1.79 goals (Leones de Rosario 1.25 · Fenix 0.55), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones de Rosario vs Fenix?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.