Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/10, 20:00

Prediction: Centro Espanol vs Puerto Nuevo

Team pages: Centro Espanol · Puerto Nuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Centro Espanol2.14

Puerto Nuevo0.79

1X2

68% 19% 13%

Centro Espanol Draw Puerto Nuevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Centro Espanol 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDDLWW

Puerto Nuevo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Centro Espanol 2–2–2 Puerto Nuevo (6 last)

Puerto Nuevo0-2Centro Espanol
Puerto Nuevo1-0Centro Espanol
Centro Espanol2-2Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo2-1Centro Espanol
Centro Espanol2-1Puerto Nuevo
Centro Espanol1-1Puerto Nuevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Centro Espanol 1552 · Puerto Nuevo 1423

	Centro Espanol	Draw	Puerto Nuevo
Our model	67%	21%	12%
Market	69%	17%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Centro Espanol (rating 1552 vs 1423).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Centro Espanol	Puerto Nuevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.3	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.25

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28
X	7.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
2	15.00 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:51 +7’	1.14	7.50	15.00
22:34 +3’	1.36▲	5.00▼	5.75▼
23:07 +6’	1.28▼	5.25▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Centro Espanol 2–2–2 Puerto Nuevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	0-2 HT 0-0	Centro Espanol
13/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	1-0 HT 1-0	Centro Espanol
13/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	2-2 HT 0-1	Puerto Nuevo
19/12/21 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	2-1 HT 2-0	Centro Espanol
12/12/21 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	2-1 HT 1-0	Puerto Nuevo
05/11/21 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	1-1 HT 0-0	Puerto Nuevo

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Berazategui	31	12	12	7	37	24	48
2	Centro Espanol	31	12	11	8	42	28	47
3	Sacachispas	31	13	8	10	32	26	47
4	CA Lugano	31	11	13	7	35	28	46
5	Juventud Unida San Miguel	31	12	9	10	38	31	45
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	31	11	12	8	31	29	45
7	Club Mercedes	31	11	11	9	30	24	44
8	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	24	19	44
9	Puerto Nuevo	31	9	11	11	28	35	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	25	31	36
11	JJ Urquiza	31	6	14	11	19	26	32
12	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	7	11	13	23	39	32
13	Club Leandro N. Alem	31	8	7	16	30	56	31
14	Argentino de Rosario	31	4	15	12	30	41	27

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Centro Espanol	Puerto Nuevo
Club Leandro N. Alem	5-1 W	3-0 W
Defensores de Cambaceres	2-0 W	0-2 L
Juventud Unida San Miguel	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sacachispas	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Centro Espanol

DWDWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
28/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
19/09	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
14/09	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
05/09	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	2	10	D
30/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
24/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
17/08	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
08/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
04/08	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	6	D

Puerto Nuevo

WDDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-4	11	2	L
26/09	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
20/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	2-3	3	8	L
12/09	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
30/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	0	4	W
23/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	2	3	D
09/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
31/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Centro Espanol vs Puerto Nuevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Centro Espanol win (68%). Probabilities: Centro Espanol 68%, draw 19%, Puerto Nuevo 13%.

How many goals are expected in Centro Espanol vs Puerto Nuevo?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Centro Espanol 2.14 · Puerto Nuevo 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Centro Espanol vs Puerto Nuevo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.