Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Juventud Unida San Miguel vs El Porvenir

Team pages: Juventud Unida San Miguel · El Porvenir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Juventud Unida San Miguel1.13

El Porvenir0.94

1X2

39% 33% 29%

Juventud Unida San Miguel Draw El Porvenir

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Juventud Unida San Miguel 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLWWL

El Porvenir 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLWDWL

Head-to-head

Juventud Unida San Miguel 3–2–1 El Porvenir (6 last)

El Porvenir0-1Juventud Unida San Miguel
Juventud Unida San Miguel1-0El Porvenir
El Porvenir1-0Juventud Unida San Miguel
El Porvenir1-1Juventud Unida San Miguel
Juventud Unida San Miguel1-1El Porvenir
Juventud Unida San Miguel2-0El Porvenir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juventud Unida San Miguel 1536 · El Porvenir 1465

	Juventud Unida San Miguel	Draw	El Porvenir
Our model	39%	33%	29%
Market	39%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juventud Unida San Miguel (rating 1536 vs 1465).
H2H favours Juventud Unida San Miguel: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juventud Unida San Miguel	El Porvenir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.88

Under 1.751.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +3’	2.30	2.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventud Unida San Miguel 3–2–1 El Porvenir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	0-1 HT 0-1	Juventud Unida San Miguel
06/10/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Juventud Unida San Miguel	1-0 HT 0-0	El Porvenir
04/05/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	1-0 HT 1-0	Juventud Unida San Miguel
14/10/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	El Porvenir	1-1 HT 0-0	Juventud Unida San Miguel
09/07/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Juventud Unida San Miguel	1-1 HT 0-1	El Porvenir
01/04/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Juventud Unida San Miguel	2-0 HT 1-0	El Porvenir

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	27	14	7	6	39	22	49
2	Canuelas FC	27	13	9	5	32	20	48
3	Leones de Rosario	27	11	10	6	26	22	43
4	Deportivo Espanol	28	9	15	4	21	15	42
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	27	10	9	8	26	21	39
6	Sportivo Barracas	27	11	5	11	31	26	38
7	General Lamadrid	27	9	10	8	22	25	37
8	CA Atlas	27	9	9	9	22	22	36
9	Central Ballester	27	9	7	11	26	27	34
10	Yupanqui	27	8	9	10	31	31	33
11	El Porvenir	27	6	15	6	22	25	33
12	Fenix	27	6	9	12	19	27	27
13	CA Claypole	27	6	8	13	19	35	26
14	Deportivo Muniz	27	4	10	13	17	32	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juventud Unida San Miguel	El Porvenir
JJ Urquiza	0-2 L	1-0 W
Club Mercedes	4-1 W	0-2 L
CA Claypole	2-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juventud Unida San Miguel

LDWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
30/08	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
25/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
22/08	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
04/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
26/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	2	5	W
12/07	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
05/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	9	7	L

El Porvenir

DDLLDLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-2	4	6	W
23/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
08/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
04/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
18/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
11/07	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
05/07	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs El Porvenir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juventud Unida San Miguel win (39%). Probabilities: Juventud Unida San Miguel 39%, draw 33%, El Porvenir 29%.

How many goals are expected in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs El Porvenir?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Juventud Unida San Miguel 1.13 · El Porvenir 0.94), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs El Porvenir?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.