Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Lujan vs Deportivo Paraguayo

Team pages: Lujan · Deportivo Paraguayo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Lujan1.7

Deportivo Paraguayo0.67

1X2

61% 25% 13%

Lujan Draw Deportivo Paraguayo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Lujan 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWDWL

Deportivo Paraguayo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Lujan 4–1 Deportivo Paraguayo (5 last)

Deportivo Paraguayo0-2Lujan
Lujan2-0Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo1-0Lujan
Deportivo Paraguayo0-2Lujan
Lujan2-1Deportivo Paraguayo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lujan 1567 · Deportivo Paraguayo 1476

	Lujan	Draw	Deportivo Paraguayo
Our model	61%	26%	13%
Market	62%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lujan (rating 1567 vs 1476).
H2H favours Lujan: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lujan	Deportivo Paraguayo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.7	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +13’	1.44	3.60	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lujan 4–0–1 Deportivo Paraguayo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-2 HT 0-1	Lujan
09/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Paraguayo
24/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	1-0 HT 0-0	Lujan
08/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-2 HT 0-1	Lujan
03/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Paraguayo

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	27	14	7	6	39	22	49
2	Canuelas FC	27	13	9	5	32	20	48
3	Leones de Rosario	27	11	10	6	26	22	43
4	Deportivo Espanol	28	9	15	4	21	15	42
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	27	10	9	8	26	21	39
6	Sportivo Barracas	27	11	5	11	31	26	38
7	General Lamadrid	27	9	10	8	22	25	37
8	CA Atlas	27	9	9	9	22	22	36
9	Central Ballester	27	9	7	11	26	27	34
10	Yupanqui	27	8	9	10	31	31	33
11	El Porvenir	27	6	15	6	22	25	33
12	Fenix	27	6	9	12	19	27	27
13	CA Claypole	27	6	8	13	19	35	26
14	Deportivo Muniz	27	4	10	13	17	32	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lujan	Deportivo Paraguayo
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	2-0 W	0-1 L
Central Ballester	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lujan (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lujan

WDWWWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	2-3	4	8	L
29/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
24/08	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/08	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/08	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
04/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/07	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
26/07	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
11/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/07	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	3	6	W

Deportivo Paraguayo

DLLWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
29/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
22/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	7	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
04/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
31/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
25/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
11/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
05/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lujan vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lujan win (61%). Probabilities: Lujan 61%, draw 25%, Deportivo Paraguayo 13%.

How many goals are expected in Lujan vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Lujan 1.7 · Deportivo Paraguayo 0.67), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lujan vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.