Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 22/08, 20:00

Prediction: Club Leandro N. Alem vs CA Lugano

Team pages: Club Leandro N. Alem · CA Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Club Leandro N. Alem0.98

CA Lugano1.01

1X2

33% 32% 35%

Club Leandro N. Alem Draw CA Lugano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Club Leandro N. Alem 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWLDLL

CA Lugano 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWWDL

Head-to-head

Club Leandro N. Alem 4–2–0 CA Lugano (6 last)

CA Lugano2-2Club Leandro N. Alem
Club Leandro N. Alem0-0CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-2Club Leandro N. Alem
Club Leandro N. Alem2-0CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-1Club Leandro N. Alem
CA Lugano1-2Club Leandro N. Alem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Leandro N. Alem 1458 · CA Lugano 1527

	Club Leandro N. Alem	Draw	CA Lugano
Our model	32%	34%	34%
Market	34%	31%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1458 vs 1527).
H2H favours Club Leandro N. Alem: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Leandro N. Alem	CA Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 1.3	6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.90

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.76 ★
X	2.80 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
2	2.38 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:36 +9’	2.90	2.80	2.38
02:44 +4’	2.50▼	2.80	2.75▲
14:59 +3’	2.60▲	2.90▲	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +4’	2.76	2.65	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Leandro N. Alem 4–2–0 CA Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	2-2 HT 0-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
24/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Leandro N. Alem	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Lugano
11/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-2 HT 0-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
06/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Leandro N. Alem	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
05/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
23/04/17 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	CA Lugano	1-2 HT 0-1	Club Leandro N. Alem

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	24	12	6	6	29	16	42
2	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	24	10	8	6	26	21	38
3	Berazategui	24	9	10	5	26	18	37
4	CA Lugano	24	9	9	6	28	22	36
5	Centro Espanol	24	9	8	7	30	22	35
6	Puerto Nuevo	24	8	11	5	22	22	35
7	Club Mercedes	24	8	9	7	23	15	33
8	Juventud Unida San Miguel	23	8	8	7	25	21	32
9	Victoriano Arenas	24	7	11	6	18	14	32
10	Club Leandro N. Alem	23	7	6	10	25	39	27
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	24	6	7	11	19	28	25
12	Argentino de Rosario	24	3	12	9	22	29	21
13	JJ Urquiza	24	3	12	9	9	20	21
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	24	4	8	12	12	30	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Leandro N. Alem	CA Lugano
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-2 L	2-1 W
Sacachispas	1-1 D	1-0 W
Argentino de Rosario	2-0 W	1-2 L
Victoriano Arenas	0-0 D	0-0 D
Centro Espanol	0-3 L	1-0 W
JJ Urquiza	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Leandro N. Alem

WLDDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
08/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
27/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
18/07	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
12/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
04/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
28/06	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/06	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
06/06	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
31/05	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	6	9	W

CA Lugano

LWWDDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W
12/07	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
04/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
14/06	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
06/06	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Leandro N. Alem vs CA Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Lugano win (35%). Probabilities: Club Leandro N. Alem 33%, draw 32%, CA Lugano 35%.

How many goals are expected in Club Leandro N. Alem vs CA Lugano?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Club Leandro N. Alem 0.98 · CA Lugano 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Leandro N. Alem vs CA Lugano?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.