Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 23/08, 20:00

Prediction: El Porvenir vs Central Ballester

Team pages: El Porvenir · Central Ballester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

El Porvenir1.21

Central Ballester0.74

1X2

46% 32% 22%

El Porvenir Draw Central Ballester

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

El Porvenir 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLLDLW

Central Ballester 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

El Porvenir 5–1–0 Central Ballester (6 last)

Central Ballester1-2El Porvenir
Central Ballester0-1El Porvenir
El Porvenir0-0Central Ballester
Central Ballester0-3El Porvenir
El Porvenir1-0Central Ballester
El Porvenir2-0Central Ballester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Porvenir 1474 · Central Ballester 1470

	El Porvenir	Draw	Central Ballester
Our model	46%	33%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours El Porvenir: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Porvenir	Central Ballester
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:46 +2’	1.91	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El Porvenir 5–1–0 Central Ballester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Central Ballester	1-2 HT 0-1	El Porvenir
21/10/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Central Ballester	0-1 HT 0-0	El Porvenir
19/05/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	0-0 HT 0-0	Central Ballester
13/11/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Central Ballester	0-3 HT 0-2	El Porvenir
31/07/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	El Porvenir	1-0 HT 1-0	Central Ballester
28/05/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	El Porvenir	2-0 HT 1-0	Central Ballester

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	24	13	6	5	33	19	45
2	Canuelas FC	25	11	9	5	27	18	42
3	General Lamadrid	25	9	9	7	22	23	36
4	CA Atlas	25	9	8	8	22	21	35
5	Sportivo Barracas	23	10	4	9	28	23	34
6	Deportivo Espanol	24	7	13	4	18	14	34
7	Leones de Rosario	24	8	10	6	22	21	34
8	Yupanqui	25	8	9	8	31	28	33
9	Central Cordoba de Rosario	24	7	9	8	21	20	30
10	El Porvenir	24	5	14	5	18	21	29
11	Central Ballester	23	7	5	11	23	27	26
12	Fenix	24	6	8	10	19	25	26
13	CA Claypole	24	6	7	11	17	30	25
14	Deportivo Muniz	24	4	10	10	16	24	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Porvenir	Central Ballester
Fenix	0-0 D	1-3 L
Lujan	0-0 D	1-3 L
General Lamadrid	1-1 D	3-0 W
Leones de Rosario	0-0 D	1-0 W
CA Atlas	0-1 L	0-2 L
Canuelas FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 5 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: El Porvenir (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Porvenir

DLDDDLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
08/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
04/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
18/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
11/07	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
05/07	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
27/06	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
13/06	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	10	L
07/06	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Central Ballester

DLLLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	8	8	W
10/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
04/08	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	9	D
26/07	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
12/07	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
04/07	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
30/06	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
14/06	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
07/06	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
30/05	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El Porvenir win (46%). Probabilities: El Porvenir 46%, draw 32%, Central Ballester 22%.

How many goals are expected in El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?

The model expects 1.95 goals (El Porvenir 1.21 · Central Ballester 0.74), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.