Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 09/08, 20:00
Prediction: CA Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas
Team pages: CA Lugano · Victoriano Arenas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.58Total
CA Lugano0.86
Victoriano Arenas0.72
1X2
CA Lugano
Draw
Victoriano Arenas
Markets
Under 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
CA Lugano
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Victoriano Arenas
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Lugano
1–3–2
Victoriano Arenas
(6 last)
- Victoriano Arenas0-0CA Lugano
- CA Lugano0-0Victoriano Arenas
- Victoriano Arenas2-1CA Lugano
- CA Lugano2-2Victoriano Arenas
- Victoriano Arenas2-1CA Lugano
- CA Lugano1-0Victoriano Arenas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1540 · Victoriano Arenas 1515
| CA Lugano | Draw | Victoriano Arenas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 38% | 27% |
| Market | 38% | 32% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.58 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Victoriano Arenas: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Lugano | Victoriano Arenas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.6 | 2.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.7 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–3–2 Victoriano Arenas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Victoriano Arenas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 13/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Victoriano Arenas |
| 10/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Victoriano Arenas | 2-1 HT 2-1 | CA Lugano |
| 10/04/18 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Victoriano Arenas |
| 13/11/17 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Victoriano Arenas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | CA Lugano |
| 17/04/17 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Victoriano Arenas |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 16 | 38 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | CA Lugano | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 35 |
| 4 | Club Mercedes | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 12 | 33 |
| 5 | Puerto Nuevo | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 33 |
| 6 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 7 | Centro Espanol | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 31 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 31 |
| 9 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 28 |
| 10 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 34 | 27 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 22 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 22 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 27 | 20 |
| 14 | Argentino de Rosario | 22 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Lugano | Victoriano Arenas |
|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Centro Espanol | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| JJ Urquiza | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Sacachispas | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Club Mercedes | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Paraguayo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (1 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/07 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 11 | L |
Victoriano Arenas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 13/06 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 31/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Lugano win (37%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 37%, draw 35%, Victoriano Arenas 29%.
How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas?
The model expects 1.58 goals (CA Lugano 0.86 · Victoriano Arenas 0.72), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.