Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Centro Espanol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

CA Lugano1.25

Centro Espanol1.23

1X2

35% 31% 34%

CA Lugano Draw Centro Espanol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWDDW

Centro Espanol 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWLD

Head-to-head

CA Lugano 1–2–3 Centro Espanol (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1530 · Centro Espanol 1515

	CA Lugano	Draw	Centro Espanol
Our model	36%	30%	35%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Centro Espanol: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Centro Espanol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.5	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +11’	2.63	2.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–2–3 Centro Espanol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	1-3 HT 1-2	CA Lugano
19/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
18/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	1-2 HT 0-1	Centro Espanol
10/09/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Lugano
03/06/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	CA Lugano	2-2 HT 1-1	Centro Espanol
23/04/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Centro Espanol	3-0 HT 2-0	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	19	10	4	5	24	14	34
2	Berazategui	19	8	8	3	23	14	32
3	Centro Espanol	19	8	6	5	26	17	30
4	Club Mercedes	20	7	8	5	21	11	29
5	CA Lugano	20	7	8	5	24	19	29
6	Puerto Nuevo	20	7	8	5	18	19	29
7	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	19	7	7	5	21	17	28
8	Victoriano Arenas	20	6	9	5	17	13	27
9	Club Leandro N. Alem	20	7	5	8	24	33	26
10	Juventud Unida San Miguel	19	5	7	7	18	19	22
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	20	5	7	8	15	21	22
12	JJ Urquiza	20	3	10	7	9	18	19
13	Argentino de Rosario	20	2	11	7	19	26	17
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	19	3	7	9	10	25	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Centro Espanol
Juventud Unida San Miguel	0-0 D	2-3 L
JJ Urquiza	0-0 D	0-0 D
Sacachispas	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Mercedes	1-0 W	0-3 L
Argentino de Rosario	1-2 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Paraguayo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Puerto Nuevo	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

WDLDLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W
12/07	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
04/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
14/06	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
06/06	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
30/05	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/05	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	2	11	L
16/05	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-2	1	9	D
10/05	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	4	8	W

Centro Espanol

WDWLDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
06/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	8	9	L
27/06	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
14/06	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
06/06	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/05	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/05	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
16/05	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/05	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
04/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	3-2	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Centro Espanol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Lugano win (35%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 35%, draw 31%, Centro Espanol 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Centro Espanol?

The model expects 2.48 goals (CA Lugano 1.25 · Centro Espanol 1.23), with a 59% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Centro Espanol?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.