Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Deportivo Paraguayo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn1.52

Deportivo Paraguayo0.57

1X2

60% 27% 13%

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Draw Deportivo Paraguayo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDDLWWL

Deportivo Paraguayo 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDDLDL

Head-to-head

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 3–0 Deportivo Paraguayo (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1532 · Deportivo Paraguayo 1413

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Draw	Deportivo Paraguayo
Our model	60%	28%	13%
Market	60%	27%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (rating 1532 vs 1413).
H2H favours Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Deportivo Paraguayo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	0.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.8	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.30

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +4’	1.50	3.30	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 3–0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	1-3 HT 1-1	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
02/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	1-2 HT 1-1	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
21/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	2-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Paraguayo

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	19	10	4	5	24	14	34
2	Berazategui	19	8	8	3	23	14	32
3	Centro Espanol	19	8	6	5	26	17	30
4	Club Mercedes	20	7	8	5	21	11	29
5	CA Lugano	20	7	8	5	24	19	29
6	Puerto Nuevo	20	7	8	5	18	19	29
7	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	19	7	7	5	21	17	28
8	Victoriano Arenas	20	6	9	5	17	13	27
9	Club Leandro N. Alem	20	7	5	8	24	33	26
10	Juventud Unida San Miguel	19	5	7	7	18	19	22
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	20	5	7	8	15	21	22
12	JJ Urquiza	20	3	10	7	9	18	19
13	Argentino de Rosario	20	2	11	7	19	26	17
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	19	3	7	9	10	25	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Deportivo Paraguayo
Puerto Nuevo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Club Leandro N. Alem	3-0 W	2-4 L
Defensores de Cambaceres	3-0 W	0-0 D
CA Lugano	3-2 W	0-0 D
Berazategui	0-0 D	0-1 L
Victoriano Arenas	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

LDDWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D
30/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	12	D
23/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	4	11	W
16/05	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
09/05	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/05	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	5	6	L

Deportivo Paraguayo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
05/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
27/06	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
13/06	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
06/06	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
30/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/05	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
17/05	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
10/05	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-4	3	5	L
02/05	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn win (60%). Probabilities: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 60%, draw 27%, Deportivo Paraguayo 13%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1.52 · Deportivo Paraguayo 0.57), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Deportivo Paraguayo?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.