Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

Team pages: Elfsborg · Malmo FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Elfsborg1.63

Malmo FF0.99

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Elfsborg Draw Malmo FF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWWW

Malmo FF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Elfsborg 2–2–2 Malmo FF (6 last)

Malmo FF1-2Elfsborg
Elfsborg2-2Malmo FF
Malmo FF2-1Elfsborg
Malmo FF0-0Elfsborg
Malmo FF2-1Elfsborg
Elfsborg3-1Malmo FF

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (rating 1568 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg	Malmo FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.04 → 2.04	Pinn 2.04
X	3.68 → 3.67▼	Pinn 3.67
2	3.24 → 3.36▲	Pinn 3.36

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43	2.04	3.68	3.24
17:43 +25’	2.04	3.67▼	3.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg 2–2–2 Malmo FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-2 HT 1-2	Elfsborg
14/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	2-2 HT 0-2	Malmo FF
07/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
10/03/25 Sweden Cup	Malmo FF	0-0 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
28/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Elfsborg
05/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	3-1 HT 1-0	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	34	43	36
8	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
9	AIK	24	9	7	8	38	42	34
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg	Malmo FF
Djurgarden	2-1 W	0-3 L
Kalmar FF	1-0 W	1-0 W
Brommapojkarna	1-2 L	2-1 W
Degerfors	2-0 W	1-2 L
Vasteras SK	3-0 W	0-2 L
Sirius	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elfsborg

LWWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
20/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
13/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L

Malmo FF

LWLWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
13/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
16/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
02/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg win (51%). Probabilities: Elfsborg 51%, draw 27%, Malmo FF 22%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Elfsborg 1.63 · Malmo FF 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.