Football · Sweden Superettan · 11/10, 17:00

Prediction: IK Brage vs Helsingborg

Team pages: IK Brage · Helsingborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

IK Brage1.52

Helsingborg1.4

1X2

40% 27% 34%

IK Brage Draw Helsingborg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IK Brage 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Helsingborg 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

IK Brage 1–1–4 Helsingborg (6 last)

Helsingborg2-0IK Brage
IK Brage3-2Helsingborg
Helsingborg1-0IK Brage
IK Brage0-3Helsingborg
Helsingborg1-1IK Brage
Helsingborg2-0IK Brage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Brage 1436 · Helsingborg 1476

	IK Brage	Draw	Helsingborg
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Helsingborg (rating 1436 vs 1476).
H2H favours Helsingborg: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Brage	Helsingborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.28
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:00 +2’	2.25	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +460’	2.28	3.88	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Brage 1–1–4 Helsingborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	2-0 HT 1-0	IK Brage
25/10/25 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	3-2 HT 2-2	Helsingborg
13/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	1-0 HT 1-0	IK Brage
27/08/24 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	0-3 HT 0-2	Helsingborg
09/04/24 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	1-1 HT 0-1	IK Brage
04/11/23 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	2-0 HT 2-0	IK Brage

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	17	4	4	48	16	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	13	6	6	46	33	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	13	5	7	44	33	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	11	10	4	33	24	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	11	7	7	39	26	40
6	Sandvikens IF	25	10	7	8	43	33	37
7	IK Oddevold	25	9	9	7	38	34	36
8	Osters IF	25	11	3	11	38	38	36
9	Nordic United FC	25	9	9	7	38	40	36
10	Helsingborg	25	8	6	11	36	45	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33	45	29
12	Ljungskile	25	6	7	12	31	38	25
13	Norrby IF	25	4	12	9	28	35	24
14	Orebro SK	25	5	9	11	27	39	24
15	IK Brage	25	5	8	12	39	48	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	6	1	18	19	53	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Brage	Helsingborg
Sandvikens IF	1-1 D	0-2 L
Ostersunds FK	1-1 D	0-1 L
GIF Sundsvall	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nordic United FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Orebro SK	3-3 D	1-1 D
IFK Norrkoping	0-3 L	0-2 L
Landskrona BoIS	2-1 W	2-1 W
IFK Varnamo	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Brage

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-3	2	1	L
15/09	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
10/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
05/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
29/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
23/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
14/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
08/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	7	2	L
01/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Helsingborg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
14/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
09/09	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
05/09	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
01/09	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	5	6	L
15/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
11/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	9	1	L
01/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
28/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	10	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Brage vs Helsingborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IK Brage win (40%). Probabilities: IK Brage 40%, draw 27%, Helsingborg 34%.

How many goals are expected in IK Brage vs Helsingborg?

The model expects 2.92 goals (IK Brage 1.52 · Helsingborg 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Brage vs Helsingborg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.