Football · Sweden Superettan · 18/10, 15:00
Prediction: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo
Team pages: GIF Sundsvall · IFK Varnamo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
GIF Sundsvall1.09
IFK Varnamo1.83
1X2
GIF Sundsvall
Draw
IFK Varnamo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
GIF Sundsvall
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
IFK Varnamo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
GIF Sundsvall
2–1–3
IFK Varnamo
(6 last)
- IFK Varnamo3-0GIF Sundsvall
- GIF Sundsvall1-2IFK Varnamo
- IFK Varnamo1-1GIF Sundsvall
- GIF Sundsvall2-0IFK Varnamo
- IFK Varnamo2-1GIF Sundsvall
- GIF Sundsvall2-1IFK Varnamo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · GIF Sundsvall 1447 · IFK Varnamo 1557
| GIF Sundsvall | Draw | IFK Varnamo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Varnamo (rating 1447 vs 1557).
- H2H favours IFK Varnamo: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| GIF Sundsvall | IFK Varnamo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4 | 3.5 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · GIF Sundsvall 2–1–3 IFK Varnamo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 Sweden Superettan | IFK Varnamo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | GIF Sundsvall |
| 19/10/22 Sweden Allsvenskan | GIF Sundsvall | 1-2 HT 1-1 | IFK Varnamo |
| 11/07/22 Sweden Allsvenskan | IFK Varnamo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | GIF Sundsvall |
| 14/08/21 Sweden Superettan | GIF Sundsvall | 2-0 HT 1-0 | IFK Varnamo |
| 18/04/21 Sweden Superettan | IFK Varnamo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | GIF Sundsvall |
| 24/02/18 Sweden Cup | GIF Sundsvall | 2-1 HT 1-1 | IFK Varnamo |
Standings · Sweden Superettan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 16 | 58 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 34 | 48 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 45 |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 26 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 34 | 25 | 44 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 28 | 43 |
| 6 | IK Oddevold | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 39 |
| 7 | Sandvikens IF | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 37 |
| 8 | Osters IF | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 40 | 36 |
| 9 | Nordic United FC | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 42 | 36 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 36 | 47 | 30 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 47 | 29 |
| 12 | Norrby IF | 26 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 30 | 35 | 27 |
| 13 | IK Brage | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 41 | 48 | 26 |
| 14 | Ljungskile | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 39 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 40 | 25 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 26 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 57 | 19 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Varnamo |
|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Landskrona BoIS | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Orebro SK | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Osters IF | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Helsingborg | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Ostersunds FK | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: IFK Varnamo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
GIF Sundsvall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Ljungskile Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 10/09 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | IK Brage Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Norrby IF Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/08 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Helsingborg Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/08 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
IFK Varnamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 15/09 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 09/09 | Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 0 | D |
| 29/08 | Ljungskile Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/08 | Helsingborg Sweden Superettan |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 03/08 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an IFK Varnamo win (54%). Probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 21%, draw 25%, IFK Varnamo 54%.
How many goals are expected in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
The model expects 2.92 goals (GIF Sundsvall 1.09 · IFK Varnamo 1.83), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.