Football · Sweden Superettan · 19/10, 19:05

Prediction: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg

Team pages: Varbergs BoIS FC · Helsingborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Varbergs BoIS FC1.74

Helsingborg1.16

1X2

50% 26% 24%

Varbergs BoIS FC Draw Helsingborg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Varbergs BoIS FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLWWD

Helsingborg 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWLDL

Head-to-head

Varbergs BoIS FC 4–2 Helsingborg (6 last)

Helsingborg1-3Varbergs BoIS FC
Helsingborg1-2Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC1-0Helsingborg
Varbergs BoIS FC0-3Helsingborg
Helsingborg1-0Varbergs BoIS FC
Helsingborg1-3Varbergs BoIS FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varbergs BoIS FC 1543 · Helsingborg 1450

	Varbergs BoIS FC	Draw	Helsingborg
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varbergs BoIS FC (rating 1543 vs 1450).
H2H favours Varbergs BoIS FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varbergs BoIS FC	Helsingborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.9	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.69
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +7’	1.80	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:12 +191’	1.83	3.69	4.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varbergs BoIS FC 4–0–2 Helsingborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	1-3 HT 1-1	Varbergs BoIS FC
28/07/25 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	1-2 HT 0-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
03/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Helsingborg
03/08/24 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Helsingborg
28/06/24 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	1-0 HT 0-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
15/10/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Helsingborg	1-3 HT 0-2	Varbergs BoIS FC

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	26	18	4	4	52	16	58
2	Falkenbergs FF	26	14	6	6	48	34	48
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	13	6	7	45	34	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	11	11	4	34	25	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	12	7	7	42	28	43
6	IK Oddevold	26	10	9	7	40	34	39
7	Sandvikens IF	26	10	7	9	45	36	37
8	Osters IF	26	11	3	12	38	40	36
9	Nordic United FC	26	9	9	8	38	42	36
10	Helsingborg	26	8	6	12	36	47	30
11	IFK Varnamo	26	8	5	13	34	47	29
12	Norrby IF	26	5	12	9	30	35	27
13	IK Brage	26	6	8	12	41	48	26
14	Ljungskile	26	6	8	12	32	39	26
15	Orebro SK	26	5	10	11	28	40	25
16	GIF Sundsvall	26	6	1	19	19	57	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varbergs BoIS FC	Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK	1-1 D	0-1 L
IK Brage	3-2 W	0-2 L
Norrby IF	2-1 W	0-0 D
IFK Norrkoping	0-2 L	0-2 L
IFK Varnamo	1-1 D	1-2 L
IK Oddevold	3-1 W	1-3 L
Orebro SK	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sandvikens IF	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Varbergs BoIS FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varbergs BoIS FC

WLDLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-2	12	1	W
14/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	0	D
30/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	3-0	3-1	5	5	W
25/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
09/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
01/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-1	3	2	W

Helsingborg

LLDLDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
20/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
14/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
09/09	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
05/09	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
01/09	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	5	6	L
15/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
11/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	9	1	L
01/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varbergs BoIS FC win (50%). Probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 50%, draw 26%, Helsingborg 24%.

How many goals are expected in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Varbergs BoIS FC 1.74 · Helsingborg 1.16), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.