Football · Sweden Superettan · 10/08, 19:00

Prediction: Norrby IF vs Orebro SK

Team pages: Norrby IF · Orebro SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Norrby IF1.44

Orebro SK1.21

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Norrby IF Draw Orebro SK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Norrby IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWLWDD

Orebro SK 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLLDL

Head-to-head

Norrby IF 0–2–1 Orebro SK (3 last)

Orebro SK1-1Norrby IF
Orebro SK0-0Norrby IF
Norrby IF0-2Orebro SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Norrby IF 1492 · Orebro SK 1409

	Norrby IF	Draw	Orebro SK
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norrby IF (rating 1492 vs 1409).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Norrby IF	Orebro SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.2	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.42
2	2.80 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	2.20	3.25	2.80
16:35 +4’	2.15▼	3.25	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	2.28	3.39	3.05
13:13 +1’	2.24▼	3.41▲	3.10▲
00:50	2.28▲	3.42▲	3.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Norrby IF 0–2–1 Orebro SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	1-1 HT 0-1	Norrby IF
04/09/22 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	0-0 HT 0-0	Norrby IF
18/04/22 Sweden Superettan	Norrby IF	0-2 HT 0-1	Orebro SK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	18	12	2	4	32	10	38
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	17	10	3	4	34	23	33
3	Falkenbergs FF	18	9	5	4	34	27	32
4	Ostersunds FK	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
5	Landskrona BoIS	18	8	4	6	24	19	28
6	Nordic United FC	18	7	7	4	29	26	28
7	Osters IF	18	8	2	8	27	27	26
8	Sandvikens IF	17	7	4	6	32	23	25
9	IK Oddevold	18	6	7	5	29	26	25
10	Helsingborg	17	7	3	7	30	34	24
11	IK Brage	18	5	5	8	30	33	20
12	Ljungskile	18	5	5	8	23	26	20
13	Norrby IF	17	3	10	4	21	23	19
14	Orebro SK	17	3	6	8	14	25	15
15	IFK Varnamo	17	4	2	11	20	35	14
16	GIF Sundsvall	18	3	0	15	13	42	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Norrby IF	Orebro SK
IK Oddevold	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ostersunds FK	2-2 D	2-3 L
GIF Sundsvall	3-1 W	0-1 L
Nordic United FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Ljungskile	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Norrby IF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Norrby IF

WLLLDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/07	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
20/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	3-1	7	1	W
11/07	Varbergs BoIS FC Club Friendly List	2-0	2-4	–	–	L
28/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/06	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/06	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
10/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
30/05	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	6	1	L
23/05	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	4	2	W

Orebro SK

LLLLDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
14/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
10/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
31/05	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	0	3	L
26/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
18/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Norrby IF win (41%). Probabilities: Norrby IF 41%, draw 28%, Orebro SK 31%.

How many goals are expected in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Norrby IF 1.44 · Orebro SK 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.