Football · Sweden Superettan · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: IK Brage vs Orebro SK

Team pages: IK Brage · Orebro SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

IK Brage1.98

Orebro SK1.63

1X2

45% 25% 31%

IK Brage Draw Orebro SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IK Brage 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLLDWL

Orebro SK 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLLDL

Head-to-head

IK Brage 3–1–2 Orebro SK (6 last)

Orebro SK0-3IK Brage
IK Brage2-1Orebro SK
IK Brage4-5Orebro SK
Orebro SK3-3IK Brage
IK Brage2-0Orebro SK
Orebro SK2-1IK Brage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Brage 1481 · Orebro SK 1397

	IK Brage	Draw	Orebro SK
Our model	45%	23%	31%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IK Brage (rating 1481 vs 1397).
H2H favours IK Brage: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Brage	Orebro SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:43 +25’	2.05	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Brage 3–1–2 Orebro SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	0-3 HT 0-0	IK Brage
07/03/26 Sweden Cup	IK Brage	2-1 HT 1-0	Orebro SK
20/09/25 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	4-5 HT 0-3	Orebro SK
30/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	3-3 HT 2-0	IK Brage
28/07/24 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	2-0 HT 0-0	Orebro SK
28/04/24 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	2-1 HT 1-0	IK Brage

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	18	12	2	4	32	10	38
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	18	10	3	5	34	24	33
3	Falkenbergs FF	18	9	5	4	34	27	32
4	Ostersunds FK	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
5	Sandvikens IF	18	8	4	6	33	23	28
6	Landskrona BoIS	18	8	4	6	24	19	28
7	Nordic United FC	18	7	7	4	29	26	28
8	Osters IF	18	8	2	8	27	27	26
9	IK Oddevold	18	6	7	5	29	26	25
10	Helsingborg	17	7	3	7	30	34	24
11	IK Brage	18	5	5	8	30	33	20
12	Ljungskile	18	5	5	8	23	26	20
13	Norrby IF	17	3	10	4	21	23	19
14	Orebro SK	17	3	6	8	14	25	15
15	IFK Varnamo	17	4	2	11	20	35	14
16	GIF Sundsvall	18	3	0	15	13	42	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Brage	Orebro SK
IFK Varnamo	0-0 D	1-3 L
Falkenbergs FF	2-4 L	1-1 D
Sandvikens IF	2-3 L	1-1 D
Ljungskile	2-2 D	2-3 L
Nordic United FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IK Brage (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Brage

LDDLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	7	2	L
01/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-3	8	7	L
26/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-4	2	2	L
21/06	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	2-1	5-1	9	4	W
14/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
09/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
30/05	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
23/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	7	1	L

Orebro SK

LLLLDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
14/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
10/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
31/05	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	0	3	L
26/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
18/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Brage vs Orebro SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IK Brage win (45%). Probabilities: IK Brage 45%, draw 25%, Orebro SK 31%.

How many goals are expected in IK Brage vs Orebro SK?

The model expects 3.6 goals (IK Brage 1.98 · Orebro SK 1.63), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Brage vs Orebro SK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.