Football · Sweden Superettan · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Orebro SK vs Ljungskile

Team pages: Orebro SK · Ljungskile

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Orebro SK1.77

Ljungskile1.47

1X2

44% 26% 31%

Orebro SK Draw Ljungskile

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDLWDL

Ljungskile 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Orebro SK 0–1 Ljungskile (1 last)

Ljungskile3-2Orebro SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK 1487 · Ljungskile 1480

	Orebro SK	Draw	Ljungskile
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK	Ljungskile
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 6.2	1.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.14
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.64
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +8’	2.05	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +705’	2.14	3.64	3.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK 0–0–1 Ljungskile

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Sweden Superettan	Ljungskile	3-2 HT 1-2	Orebro SK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	17	4	4	48	16	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	13	6	6	46	33	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	13	5	7	44	33	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	11	10	4	33	24	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	11	7	7	39	26	40
6	Sandvikens IF	25	10	7	8	43	33	37
7	IK Oddevold	25	9	9	7	38	34	36
8	Osters IF	25	11	3	11	38	38	36
9	Nordic United FC	25	9	9	7	38	40	36
10	Helsingborg	25	8	6	11	36	45	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33	45	29
12	Ljungskile	25	6	7	12	31	38	25
13	Norrby IF	25	4	12	9	28	35	24
14	Orebro SK	25	5	9	11	27	39	24
15	IK Brage	25	5	8	12	39	48	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	6	1	18	19	53	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK	Ljungskile
Nordic United FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
GIF Sundsvall	3-0 W	2-3 L
Ostersunds FK	0-1 L	0-0 D
Norrby IF	1-3 L	2-1 W
IFK Varnamo	1-3 L	0-1 L
IK Oddevold	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ljungskile (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orebro SK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-4	6	6	L
14/09	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
10/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
07/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/09	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
25/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
14/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	10	2	D
10/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	11	1	L
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Ljungskile

WDLLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-3	2	1	L
13/09	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
09/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
04/09	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
24/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
15/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	2-2	2-3	5	4	L
08/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
02/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
19/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-2	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK vs Ljungskile?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orebro SK win (44%). Probabilities: Orebro SK 44%, draw 26%, Ljungskile 31%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK vs Ljungskile?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Orebro SK 1.77 · Ljungskile 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ljungskile?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.