Football · Sweden Superettan · 03/08, 19:05

Prediction: Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo

Team pages: Orebro SK · IFK Varnamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Orebro SK1.44

IFK Varnamo1.14

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Orebro SK Draw IFK Varnamo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDLLD

IFK Varnamo 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Orebro SK 2–0 IFK Varnamo (2 last)

IFK Varnamo0-1Orebro SK
IFK Varnamo0-3Orebro SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK 1453 · IFK Varnamo 1373

	Orebro SK	Draw	IFK Varnamo
Our model	43%	29%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orebro SK (rating 1453 vs 1373).
H2H favours Orebro SK: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK	IFK Varnamo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	0.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/44/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.42
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +1’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	2.28	3.42	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK 2–0–0 IFK Varnamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	0-1 HT 0-0	Orebro SK
21/03/26 Club Friendly List	IFK Varnamo	0-3 HT 0-3	Orebro SK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Falkenbergs FF	16	9	4	3	32	24	31
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	15	9	3	3	32	19	30
3	IFK Norrkoping	15	9	2	4	26	10	29
4	Ostersunds FK	16	7	5	4	26	21	26
5	Landskrona BoIS	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	Nordic United FC	15	7	4	4	25	22	25
7	Osters IF	15	7	2	6	24	25	23
8	Helsingborg	15	7	2	6	29	31	23
9	Ljungskile	16	6	4	6	23	21	22
10	IK Oddevold	15	5	5	5	28	26	20
11	Sandvikens IF	16	5	4	7	25	25	19
12	Norrby IF	16	3	9	4	21	23	18
13	IK Brage	16	4	5	7	28	29	17
14	Orebro SK	15	3	5	7	13	22	14
15	IFK Varnamo	16	3	2	11	17	34	11
16	GIF Sundsvall	16	3	0	13	13	36	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK	IFK Varnamo
Nordic United FC	0-2 L	0-2 L
Ljungskile	2-3 L	2-3 L
Falkenbergs FF	1-1 D	1-3 L
Helsingborg	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Orebro SK (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orebro SK

WLLLLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
14/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
10/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
31/05	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	0	3	L
26/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
18/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-4	1	2	L
12/05	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

IFK Varnamo

DLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/07	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
13/07	Naestved Club Friendly List	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
21/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-5	3	4	L
16/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
31/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/05	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
17/05	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orebro SK win (43%). Probabilities: Orebro SK 43%, draw 27%, IFK Varnamo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Orebro SK 1.44 · IFK Varnamo 1.14), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.