Football · Sweden Superettan · 11/08, 19:00

Prediction: Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo

Team pages: Helsingborg · IFK Varnamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Helsingborg1.65

IFK Varnamo1.34

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Helsingborg Draw IFK Varnamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Helsingborg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWDL

IFK Varnamo 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Helsingborg 1–5 IFK Varnamo (6 last)

IFK Varnamo0-1Helsingborg
IFK Varnamo3-1Helsingborg
Helsingborg0-1IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo3-2Helsingborg
Helsingborg1-4IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo3-1Helsingborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Helsingborg 1487 · IFK Varnamo 1418

	Helsingborg	Draw	IFK Varnamo
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Helsingborg (rating 1487 vs 1418).
H2H favours IFK Varnamo: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Helsingborg	IFK Varnamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.30 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +1’	1.91	3.50	3.30
19:22 +33’	2.05▲	3.40▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:14	2.05	3.74	3.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Helsingborg 1–0–5 IFK Varnamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	0-1 HT 0-1	Helsingborg
22/03/25 Club Friendly List	IFK Varnamo	3-1 HT 2-1	Helsingborg
25/02/24 Sweden Cup	Helsingborg	0-1 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo
05/09/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Varnamo	3-2 HT 2-1	Helsingborg
21/05/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Helsingborg	1-4 HT 1-0	IFK Varnamo
06/11/21 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	3-1 HT 0-1	Helsingborg

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	18	12	2	4	32	10	38
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	17	10	3	4	34	23	33
3	Falkenbergs FF	18	9	5	4	34	27	32
4	Ostersunds FK	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
5	Landskrona BoIS	18	8	4	6	24	19	28
6	Nordic United FC	18	7	7	4	29	26	28
7	Osters IF	18	8	2	8	27	27	26
8	Sandvikens IF	17	7	4	6	32	23	25
9	IK Oddevold	18	6	7	5	29	26	25
10	Helsingborg	17	7	3	7	30	34	24
11	IK Brage	18	5	5	8	30	33	20
12	Ljungskile	18	5	5	8	23	26	20
13	Norrby IF	17	3	10	4	21	23	19
14	Orebro SK	17	3	6	8	14	25	15
15	IFK Varnamo	17	4	2	11	20	35	14
16	GIF Sundsvall	18	3	0	15	13	42	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Helsingborg	IFK Varnamo
Nordic United FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Falkenbergs FF	3-2 W	1-3 L
Landskrona BoIS	0-3 L	0-1 L
Orebro SK	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Helsingborg

WLLWWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
28/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	10	2	D
21/07	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	3-2	3-2	3	3	W
14/07	AB Copenhagen Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
28/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	2-4	9	5	L
21/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	5-2	6	0	W
16/06	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-3	10	5	L
31/05	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
26/05	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	5	5	W

IFK Varnamo

LLLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/07	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
13/07	Naestved Club Friendly List	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
21/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-5	3	4	L
16/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
31/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/05	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Helsingborg win (44%). Probabilities: Helsingborg 44%, draw 26%, IFK Varnamo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Helsingborg 1.65 · IFK Varnamo 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.