Football · Sweden Superettan · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF

Team pages: IFK Varnamo · Falkenbergs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

IFK Varnamo1.45

Falkenbergs FF1.4

1X2

38% 27% 35%

IFK Varnamo Draw Falkenbergs FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Varnamo 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWDWLW

Falkenbergs FF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

IFK Varnamo 4–2 Falkenbergs FF (6 last)

Falkenbergs FF3-1IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo1-0Falkenbergs FF
IFK Varnamo3-2Falkenbergs FF
IFK Varnamo0-1Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF0-3IFK Varnamo
Falkenbergs FF0-1IFK Varnamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Varnamo 1549 · Falkenbergs FF 1544

	IFK Varnamo	Draw	Falkenbergs FF
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IFK Varnamo: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.7	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.43
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.89 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +2’	2.38	3.30	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +574’	2.36	3.43	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Varnamo 4–0–2 Falkenbergs FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	3-1 HT 2-0	IFK Varnamo
08/03/25 Club Friendly List	IFK Varnamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Falkenbergs FF
25/10/21 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	3-2 HT 1-2	Falkenbergs FF
10/07/21 Club Friendly List	IFK Varnamo	0-1 HT 0-1	Falkenbergs FF
01/05/21 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	0-3 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo
09/02/19 Europe Friendlies	Falkenbergs FF	0-1 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	17	4	4	48	16	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	13	6	6	46	33	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	13	5	7	44	33	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	11	10	4	33	24	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	11	7	7	39	26	40
6	Sandvikens IF	25	10	7	8	43	33	37
7	IK Oddevold	25	9	9	7	38	34	36
8	Osters IF	25	11	3	11	38	38	36
9	Nordic United FC	25	9	9	7	38	40	36
10	Helsingborg	25	8	6	11	36	45	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33	45	29
12	Ljungskile	25	6	7	12	31	38	25
13	Norrby IF	25	4	12	9	28	35	24
14	Orebro SK	25	5	9	11	27	39	24
15	IK Brage	25	5	8	12	39	48	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	6	1	18	19	53	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF
IK Oddevold	2-1 W	1-2 L
Osters IF	1-3 L	2-1 W
Nordic United FC	4-2 W	1-1 D
Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Ljungskile	1-0 W	2-0 W
Ostersunds FK	1-1 D	0-0 D
IK Brage	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Varnamo

DWWDDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-1	5	0	W
15/09	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-3	11	1	L
09/09	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	4-2	8	3	W
05/09	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	12	0	D
29/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/08	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
03/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Falkenbergs FF

WLDWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
10/09	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/09	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
24/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
26/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Varnamo win (38%). Probabilities: IFK Varnamo 38%, draw 27%, Falkenbergs FF 35%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model expects 2.85 goals (IFK Varnamo 1.45 · Falkenbergs FF 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.