Football · Norway Division 1 · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Stabaek vs Sogndal

Team pages: Stabaek · Sogndal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Stabaek2.39

Sogndal1.47

1X2

57% 21% 22%

Stabaek Draw Sogndal

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Stabaek 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLLL

Sogndal 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Stabaek 2–3–1 Sogndal (6 last)

Sogndal2-2Stabaek
Stabaek1-0Sogndal
Stabaek1-2Sogndal
Sogndal1-1Stabaek
Stabaek2-0Sogndal
Stabaek3-3Sogndal

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (rating 1557 vs 1475).
H2H favours Stabaek: 2-3-1.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stabaek	Sogndal
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.4	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 8.1	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.83

Under 3.751.96

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.41 → 1.41	Pinn 1.41
X	5.27 → 5.27	Pinn 5.27
2	5.84 → 5.84	Pinn 5.84

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +241’	1.41	5.27	5.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stabaek 2–3–1 Sogndal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-2 HT 2-1	Stabaek
06/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Stabaek	1-0 HT 0-0	Sogndal
18/08/25 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	1-2 HT 0-1	Sogndal
26/07/25 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	1-1 HT 1-0	Stabaek
28/09/24 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	2-0 HT 1-0	Sogndal
13/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Stabaek	3-3 HT 1-1	Sogndal

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	22	16	1	5	68	37	49
2	Kongsvinger	22	14	5	3	63	34	47
3	Stromsgodset	22	13	6	3	58	31	45
4	Stabaek	22	13	3	6	55	28	42
5	Hodd	22	10	4	8	37	40	34
6	Odd BK	22	9	6	7	42	35	33
7	Bryne	22	10	2	10	28	31	32
8	Egersund	22	8	5	9	35	39	29
9	Lyn 1896	22	8	4	10	38	44	28
10	Ranheim	22	7	4	11	52	57	25
11	Strommen	22	7	4	11	33	48	25
12	Sandnes Ulf	22	7	3	12	31	40	24
13	Sogndal	22	6	5	11	37	51	23
14	Moss	22	6	4	12	36	51	22
15	Asane	22	5	5	12	34	48	19
16	Raufoss	22	6	1	15	26	59	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stabaek	Sogndal
Bryne	0-2 L	0-2 L
Moss	2-3 L	2-2 D
Ranheim	4-2 W	3-2 W
Egersund	4-0 W	4-2 W
Lyn 1896	4-3 W	2-3 L
Raufoss	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stabaek

WWWWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
05/09	Moss Norway Division 1	2-2	2-3	8	1	L
30/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
26/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	8	2	W
16/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
08/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-2	4-3	13	3	W
02/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
27/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
03/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	5-2	7	0	W
27/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W

Sogndal

LWLWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
26/08	Moss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
16/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
02/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-3	2-3	7	2	L
26/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
03/07	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-4	1-5	10	1	L
27/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	3-1	4-2	4	5	W
21/06	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-2	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stabaek vs Sogndal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stabaek win (57%). Probabilities: Stabaek 57%, draw 21%, Sogndal 22%.

How many goals are expected in Stabaek vs Sogndal?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Stabaek 2.39 · Sogndal 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sogndal?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.