Football · Norway Division 1 Women · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Grei (W) vs Frigg (W)

Team pages: Grei (W) · Frigg (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Grei (W)2.95

Frigg (W)1.11

1X2

73% 16% 10%

Grei (W) Draw Frigg (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Grei (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWWL

Frigg (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Grei (W) 1–1 Frigg (W) (2 last)

Frigg (W)1-5Grei (W)
Frigg (W)1-0Grei (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grei (W) 1532 · Frigg (W) 1441

	Grei (W)	Draw	Frigg (W)
Our model	74%	15%	11%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grei (W) (rating 1532 vs 1441).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grei (W)	Frigg (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.8	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +9’	1.22	5.25	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grei (W) 1–0–1 Frigg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Norway Division 1 Women	Frigg (W)	1-5 HT 0-2	Grei (W)
04/08/21 Norway Cup Women	Frigg (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Grei (W)

Standings · Norway Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Start (W)	21	17	3	1	53	18	54
2	Viking FK (W)	21	14	4	3	60	21	46
3	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	21	14	3	4	67	21	45
4	Asane (W)	19	12	6	1	34	13	42
5	TIL 2020 Women	21	9	4	8	39	22	31
6	Odd BK (W)	21	6	6	9	27	32	24
7	Grei (W)	20	7	2	11	35	48	23
8	Bryne (W)	21	7	2	12	25	40	23
9	Kolbotn Women	19	6	3	10	28	36	21
10	Fyllingsdalen (W)	20	7	0	13	29	49	21
11	Frigg (W)	20	3	1	16	12	52	10
12	Klepp (W)	20	3	0	17	20	77	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grei (W)	Frigg (W)
Arna-Bjørnar (W)	0-10 L	0-5 L
Fyllingsdalen (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Asane (W)	1-1 D	0-4 L
Bryne (W)	0-5 L	1-0 W
Klepp (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
Kolbotn Women	3-1 W	2-3 L
Odd BK (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
IK Start (W)	1-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Grei (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grei (W)

WLLWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Arna-Bjørnar (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-4	0-10	–	–	L
27/09	Fyllingsdalen (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
20/09	TIL 2020 Women Norway Division 1 Women	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
16/09	Asane (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Bryne (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-1	0-5	6	3	L
30/08	Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women	2-0	4-0	9	1	W
16/08	Kolbotn Women Norway Division 1 Women	1-1	3-1	0	1	W
09/08	Odd BK (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
02/08	IK Start (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-0	1-3	1	1	L
28/06	Kolbotn Women Norway Division 1 Women	1-0	3-0	1	3	W

Frigg (W)

LLLDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Fyllingsdalen (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
30/09	Arna-Bjørnar (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	0-5	2	2	L
26/09	Viking FK (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Asane (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
30/08	Bryne (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/08	Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
16/08	Odd BK (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
09/08	IK Start (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-2	0-5	2	1	L
02/08	Kolbotn Women Norway Division 1 Women	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
27/06	Odd BK (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grei (W) vs Frigg (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grei (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Grei (W) 73%, draw 16%, Frigg (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Grei (W) vs Frigg (W)?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Grei (W) 2.95 · Frigg (W) 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Grei (W) vs Frigg (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.