Football · Norway Division 1 · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Moss vs Haugesund

Team pages: Moss · Haugesund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

Moss1.88

Haugesund2.32

1X2

31% 21% 48%

Moss Draw Haugesund

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Moss 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLDLW

Haugesund 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Moss 0–1–2 Haugesund (3 last)

Haugesund3-1Moss
Haugesund2-0Moss
Moss0-0Haugesund

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haugesund (rating 1452 vs 1573).
H2H favours Haugesund: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moss	Haugesund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.5	3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.81

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.95 → 3.95	Pinn 3.95
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.33
2	1.71 → 1.71	Pinn 1.71

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +375’	3.95	4.33	1.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moss 0–1–2 Haugesund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 1	Haugesund	3-1 HT 0-0	Moss
08/12/24 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	Haugesund	2-0 HT 2-0	Moss
05/12/24 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	Moss	0-0 HT 0-0	Haugesund

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kongsvinger	21	14	4	3	62	33	46
2	Haugesund	21	15	1	5	64	36	46
3	Stabaek	21	13	3	5	55	26	42
4	Stromsgodset	21	12	6	3	54	30	42
5	Hodd	21	10	4	7	37	38	34
6	Odd BK	21	9	6	6	41	33	33
7	Bryne	21	9	2	10	26	31	29
8	Egersund	21	8	4	9	34	38	28
9	Lyn 1896	21	7	4	10	36	44	25
10	Ranheim	21	7	3	11	50	55	24
11	Sandnes Ulf	21	7	3	11	30	36	24
12	Strommen	21	7	3	11	32	47	24
13	Moss	21	6	4	11	35	47	22
14	Sogndal	21	6	4	11	36	50	22
15	Asane	21	5	4	12	32	46	18
16	Raufoss	21	5	1	15	24	58	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moss	Haugesund
Sogndal	2-2 D	2-0 W
Bryne	1-2 L	2-0 W
Odd BK	3-3 D	3-1 W
Raufoss	1-2 L	7-2 W
Egersund	0-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Haugesund (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moss

LLLLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-2	3-2	4	1	W
30/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
02/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
26/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	12	3	L
04/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
27/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
21/06	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	1-4	7	5	L

Haugesund

LWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	12	1	W
30/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	6	W
16/08	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
09/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	4-1	7-2	5	6	W
03/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-1	4-3	4	3	W
25/07	Bryne Norway Division 1	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/07	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
27/06	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	3-2	4-2	10	4	W
21/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-3	2-5	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moss vs Haugesund?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Haugesund win (48%). Probabilities: Moss 31%, draw 21%, Haugesund 48%.

How many goals are expected in Moss vs Haugesund?

The model expects 4.21 goals (Moss 1.88 · Haugesund 2.32), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Moss vs Haugesund?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.