Football · Norway Division 1 · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Haugesund vs Stabaek

Team pages: Haugesund · Stabaek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Haugesund2.33

Stabaek1.78

1X2

49% 22% 29%

Haugesund Draw Stabaek

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Haugesund 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWW

Stabaek 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Haugesund 1–1–4 Stabaek (6 last)

Stabaek3-2Haugesund
Stabaek2-1Haugesund
Haugesund3-0Stabaek
Stabaek3-0Haugesund
Stabaek2-1Haugesund
Haugesund0-0Stabaek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haugesund 1599 · Stabaek 1566

	Haugesund	Draw	Stabaek
Our model	50%	21%	29%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stabaek: 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haugesund	Stabaek
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.4	3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	3.1 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.87
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.23 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +1’	1.85	3.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +516’	1.87	4.23	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Haugesund 1–1–4 Stabaek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	3-2 HT 1-1	Haugesund
07/05/25 Norway Cup	Stabaek	2-1 HT 1-0	Haugesund
03/12/23 Norway Eliteserien	Haugesund	3-0 HT 0-0	Stabaek
23/04/23 Norway Eliteserien	Stabaek	3-0 HT 1-0	Haugesund
31/10/21 Norway Eliteserien	Stabaek	2-1 HT 0-0	Haugesund
24/05/21 Norway Eliteserien	Haugesund	0-0 HT 0-0	Stabaek

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	23	17	1	5	72	39	52
2	Kongsvinger	23	15	5	3	68	35	50
3	Stromsgodset	23	14	6	3	60	31	48
4	Stabaek	23	14	3	6	57	29	45
5	Odd BK	23	10	6	7	47	36	36
6	Bryne	23	11	2	10	32	31	35
7	Hodd	23	10	4	9	38	45	34
8	Egersund	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
9	Ranheim	23	8	4	11	56	58	28
10	Lyn 1896	23	8	4	11	39	48	28
11	Moss	23	7	4	12	38	52	25
12	Strommen	23	7	4	12	35	52	25
13	Sandnes Ulf	23	7	3	13	32	42	24
14	Sogndal	23	6	5	12	38	53	23
15	Asane	23	5	5	13	34	52	19
16	Raufoss	23	6	1	16	26	61	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haugesund	Stabaek
Moss	4-1 W	2-3 L
Sogndal	2-0 W	2-1 W
Bryne	2-0 W	0-2 L
Egersund	3-0 W	4-0 W
Raufoss	7-2 W	2-0 W
Ranheim	4-3 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Haugesund (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haugesund

WLWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Strommen Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	9	3	W
13/09	Moss Norway Division 1	2-1	4-1	7	4	W
05/09	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	12	1	W
30/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	6	W
16/08	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
09/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	4-1	7-2	5	6	W
03/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-1	4-3	4	3	W
25/07	Bryne Norway Division 1	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/07	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	3-1	5	5	W

Stabaek

WWWWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
12/09	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
05/09	Moss Norway Division 1	2-2	2-3	8	1	L
30/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
26/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	8	2	W
16/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
08/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-2	4-3	13	3	W
02/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
27/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
03/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	5-2	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haugesund vs Stabaek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haugesund win (49%). Probabilities: Haugesund 49%, draw 22%, Stabaek 29%.

How many goals are expected in Haugesund vs Stabaek?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Haugesund 2.33 · Stabaek 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.