Football · Norway Division 1 · 05/10, 19:00

Prediction: Moss vs Kongsvinger

Team pages: Moss · Kongsvinger

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Moss1.79

Kongsvinger2.56

1X2

26% 21% 54%

Moss Draw Kongsvinger

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Moss 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLWLW

Kongsvinger 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Moss 2–1–3 Kongsvinger (6 last)

Kongsvinger2-1Moss
Moss2-4Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger1-2Moss
Kongsvinger6-0Moss
Moss3-2Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger0-0Moss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moss 1470 · Kongsvinger 1626

	Moss	Draw	Kongsvinger
Our model	26%	20%	54%
Market	25%	22%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1470 vs 1626).
H2H favours Kongsvinger: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moss	Kongsvinger
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	3.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.10

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.31
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +12’	3.50	4.10	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:16 +307’	3.56	4.31	1.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moss 2–1–3 Kongsvinger

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	2-1 HT 0-0	Moss
18/10/25 Norway Division 1	Moss	2-4 HT 1-2	Kongsvinger
19/07/25 Club Friendly List	Kongsvinger	1-2 HT 1-1	Moss
21/04/25 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	6-0 HT 2-0	Moss
01/12/24 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs	Moss	3-2 HT 1-0	Kongsvinger
16/09/24 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	0-0 HT 0-0	Moss

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	23	17	1	5	72	39	52
2	Kongsvinger	23	15	5	3	68	35	50
3	Stromsgodset	23	14	6	3	60	31	48
4	Stabaek	23	14	3	6	57	29	45
5	Odd BK	23	10	6	7	47	36	36
6	Bryne	23	11	2	10	32	31	35
7	Hodd	23	10	4	9	38	45	34
8	Egersund	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
9	Ranheim	23	8	4	11	56	58	28
10	Lyn 1896	23	8	4	11	39	48	28
11	Moss	23	7	4	12	38	52	25
12	Strommen	23	7	4	12	35	52	25
13	Sandnes Ulf	23	7	3	13	32	42	24
14	Sogndal	23	6	5	12	38	53	23
15	Asane	23	5	5	13	34	52	19
16	Raufoss	23	6	1	16	26	61	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moss	Kongsvinger
Sandnes Ulf	2-1 W	6-1 W
Haugesund	1-4 L	3-2 W
Strommen	1-2 L	1-3 L
Sogndal	2-2 D	5-1 W
Odd BK	3-3 D	1-0 W
Hodd	1-2 L	5-1 W
Raufoss	1-2 L	9-1 W
Egersund	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kongsvinger (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moss

LLLDLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
05/09	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-2	3-2	4	1	W
30/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
02/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
26/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	12	3	L
04/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-2	0-3	0	2	L

Kongsvinger

WWLWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Hodd Norway Division 1	2-1	5-1	11	4	W
13/09	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
05/09	Raufoss Norway Division 1	3-0	9-1	8	0	W
30/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-2	4-4	5	5	D
26/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
02/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	1-3	7	3	L
26/07	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	3-0	6-1	3	2	W
03/07	Sogndal Norway Division 1	4-1	5-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moss vs Kongsvinger?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kongsvinger win (54%). Probabilities: Moss 26%, draw 21%, Kongsvinger 54%.

How many goals are expected in Moss vs Kongsvinger?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Moss 1.79 · Kongsvinger 2.56), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Moss vs Kongsvinger?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.