Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 15/08, 12:00

Prediction: Lyn (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Team pages: Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Lyn (W)1.47

Fortuna Aalesund (W)1.71

1X2

32% 25% 42%

Lyn (W) Draw Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lyn (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLLDW

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Lyn (W) 1–2 Fortuna Aalesund (W) (3 last)

Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-0Lyn (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)4-1Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)3-1Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyn (W) 1536 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1607

	Lyn (W)	Draw	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Our model	32%	25%	42%
Market	33%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1536 vs 1607).
H2H favours Fortuna Aalesund (W): 2-0-1.
High corners: 13 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lyn (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	3.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	4.1 / 9.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +17’	2.75	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +68’	2.59	3.56	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyn (W) 1–0–2 Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Lyn (W)
11/08/21 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	4-1 HT 2-1	Lyn (W)
28/08/16 Norway Division 1 Women	Lyn (W)	3-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	12	10	2	0	37	3	32
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	11	8	1	2	27	12	25
3	Rosenborg (W)	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Valerenga (W)	13	7	1	5	31	19	22
5	Stabaek (W)	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
6	Lyn (W)	11	4	4	3	20	11	16
7	LSK Kvinner (W)	11	4	2	5	17	19	14
8	Molde FK (W)	12	4	2	6	20	23	14
9	Haugesund (W)	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	Roa (W)	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
11	Honefoss (W)	11	2	2	7	10	23	8
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	12	0	2	10	7	50	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lyn (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
LSK Kvinner (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Honefoss (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
SK Brann (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Valerenga (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Roa (W)	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Aalesund (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lyn (W)

WDWLWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Women’s Friendly	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
24/07	Kolbotn (W) Women’s Friendly	–	1-1	1	0	D
20/06	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
16/06	SK Brann (W) Norway Cup Women	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	4-4	4	2	D
31/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
26/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-4	6	1	L
21/05	Grei (W) Norway Cup Women	4-0	4-1	5	1	W
15/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/05	Frigg (W) Norway Cup Women	0-0	4-0	5	1	W

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WWWWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Cup Women	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W
17/06	Valerenga (W) Norway Cup Women	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
13/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-2	10	0	W
19/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Cup Women	1-0	5-1	–	–	W
15/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
11/05	Kil Hemne Women Norway Cup Women	4-0	6-1	–	–	W
08/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyn (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortuna Aalesund (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Lyn (W) 32%, draw 25%, Fortuna Aalesund (W) 42%.

How many goals are expected in Lyn (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Lyn (W) 1.47 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1.71), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyn (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.