Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Valerenga (W)

Team pages: Bodo/Glimt (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Bodo/Glimt (W)1.19

Valerenga (W)3.19

1X2

6% 9% 85%

Bodo/Glimt (W) Draw Valerenga (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Bodo/Glimt (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt (W) 0–4 Valerenga (W) (4 last)

Valerenga (W)7-1Bodo/Glimt (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)1-4Valerenga (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)0-3Valerenga (W)
Valerenga (W)4-0Bodo/Glimt (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodo/Glimt (W) 1356 · Valerenga (W) 1475

	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Draw	Valerenga (W)
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	2%	6%	93%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga (W) (rating 1356 vs 1475).
H2H favours Valerenga (W): 4-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Valerenga (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 4.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2.6	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.7	0.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

151.00

X17.00

21.03

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.75)1.90

2 (-3.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.80

Under 4.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	51.00 → 51.00	Bet365 51.00
X	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
2	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:38 +3’	51.00	17.00	1.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodo/Glimt (W) 0–0–4 Valerenga (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Valerenga (W)	7-1 HT 5-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)
03/10/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	1-4 HT 1-1	Valerenga (W)
14/06/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Valerenga (W)
10/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Valerenga (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	12	10	2	0	37	3	32
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	11	8	1	2	27	12	25
3	Rosenborg (W)	12	7	3	2	21	13	24
4	Valerenga (W)	12	6	1	5	27	18	19
5	Stabaek (W)	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
6	Lyn (W)	11	4	4	3	20	11	16
7	LSK Kvinner (W)	11	4	2	5	17	19	14
8	Molde FK (W)	12	4	2	6	20	23	14
9	Haugesund (W)	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	Roa (W)	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
11	Honefoss (W)	11	2	2	7	10	23	8
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	11	0	2	9	6	46	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Valerenga (W)
Molde FK (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-8 L	1-2 L
Rosenborg (W)	0-3 L	2-3 L
Lyn (W)	0-9 L	0-2 L
SK Brann (W)	1-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bodo/Glimt (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
20/06	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-5	1-8	2	1	L
13/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-2	0	2	L
26/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-5	1-7	2	3	L
15/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-6	7	1	L
12/05	Grei (W) Norway Cup Women	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
08/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
03/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
25/04	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-6	0-9	5	2	L
01/04	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-4	0	0	L

Valerenga (W)

LWWLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Omonia Nicosia (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
05/08	Malmo FF (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
21/07	Brondby (W) Women’s Friendly	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
20/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
17/06	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Cup Women	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
13/06	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
31/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/05	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-0	7-1	6	3	W
20/05	Tromso Women Norway Cup Women	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valerenga (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Bodo/Glimt (W) 6%, draw 9%, Valerenga (W) 85%.

How many goals are expected in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Bodo/Glimt (W) 1.19 · Valerenga (W) 3.19), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.