Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: UCD vs Finn Harps

Team pages: UCD · Finn Harps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

UCD2.42

Finn Harps1.2

1X2

63% 20% 17%

UCD Draw Finn Harps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

UCD 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDLWD

Finn Harps 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

UCD 4–2 Finn Harps (6 last)

Finn Harps0-5UCD
UCD2-1Finn Harps
Finn Harps2-1UCD
Finn Harps3-4UCD
Finn Harps3-0UCD
UCD3-1Finn Harps

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCD (rating 1511 vs 1384).
H2H favours UCD: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCD	Finn Harps
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	0.5 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.2 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.84

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:43

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.24 → 1.29▲	Pinn 1.29
X	6.03 → 5.65▼	Pinn 5.65
2	9.01 → 8.01▼	Pinn 8.01

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:32 +1’	1.24	6.03	9.01
13:16 +28’	1.29▲	5.65▼	8.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCD 4–0–2 Finn Harps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	0-5 HT 0-3	UCD
17/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	UCD	2-1 HT 1-0	Finn Harps
20/02/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	2-1 HT 1-0	UCD
17/10/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	3-4 HT 1-3	UCD
18/07/25 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	Finn Harps	3-0 HT 1-0	UCD
11/07/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	UCD	3-1 HT 2-1	Finn Harps

Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cork City	28	20	4	4	59	25	64
2	UCD	28	13	5	10	47	33	44
3	Bray Wanderers	28	12	7	9	56	41	43
4	Longford Town	28	11	7	10	39	36	40
5	Cobh Ramblers	28	12	4	12	32	38	40
6	Kerry FC	28	9	9	10	35	34	36
7	Athlone Town	28	9	7	12	28	33	34
8	Wexford FC	28	9	7	12	32	41	34
9	Treaty United FC	28	7	9	12	28	41	30
10	Finn Harps	28	5	7	16	22	56	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCD	Finn Harps
Kerry FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wexford FC	4-1 W	1-0 W
Treaty United FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Athlone Town	0-0 D	1-1 D
Cork City	5-2 W	0-3 L
Bray Wanderers	0-6 L	0-5 L
Longford Town	1-2 L	0-5 L
Cobh Ramblers	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: UCD (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCD

WLWLLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
07/08	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	2-0	4-1	7	1	W
03/08	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
31/07	Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
24/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	2-2	5-2	6	5	W
10/07	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	0-6	4	3	L
04/07	Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/06	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
19/06	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
12/06	Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division	3-0	5-0	4	4	W

Finn Harps

LLDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
07/08	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
03/08	Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-5	3	5	L
31/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-3	2	5	L
24/07	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
10/07	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/07	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	1-0	2	9	W
26/06	Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	1-1	3	12	D
19/06	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-3	0	5	L
12/06	UCD Republic of Ireland First Division	0-3	0-5	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCD vs Finn Harps?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UCD win (63%). Probabilities: UCD 63%, draw 20%, Finn Harps 17%.

How many goals are expected in UCD vs Finn Harps?

The model expects 3.62 goals (UCD 2.42 · Finn Harps 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UCD vs Finn Harps?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.