Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Finn Harps vs Athlone Town

Team pages: Finn Harps · Athlone Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Finn Harps1.04

Athlone Town1.71

1X2

22% 26% 52%

Finn Harps Draw Athlone Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Finn Harps 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLLL

Athlone Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Finn Harps 1–2–3 Athlone Town (6 last)

Athlone Town1-1Finn Harps
Finn Harps1-2Athlone Town
Athlone Town2-1Finn Harps
Finn Harps2-1Athlone Town
Athlone Town0-0Finn Harps
Finn Harps0-2Athlone Town

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athlone Town (rating 1379 vs 1535).
H2H favours Athlone Town: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Finn Harps	Athlone Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.8	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.3	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.97

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:10

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.11 → 4.31▲	Pinn 4.31
X	3.82 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.75
2	1.77 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.75

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +2’	4.11	3.82	1.77
04:01 +1’	4.11	3.79▼	1.77▲
13:03 +7’	4.31▲	3.75▼	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Harps 1–2–3 Athlone Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Athlone Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Finn Harps
24/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	1-2 HT 0-0	Athlone Town
13/02/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Athlone Town	2-1 HT 2-1	Finn Harps
22/08/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	2-1 HT 1-0	Athlone Town
20/06/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Athlone Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Finn Harps
09/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	0-2 HT 0-1	Athlone Town

Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cork City	29	21	4	4	61	25	67
2	UCD	29	14	5	10	52	37	47
3	Bray Wanderers	29	12	7	10	57	43	43
4	Longford Town	29	11	8	10	41	38	41
5	Cobh Ramblers	29	12	5	12	34	40	41
6	Kerry FC	29	10	9	10	38	35	39
7	Athlone Town	29	10	7	12	30	34	37
8	Wexford FC	29	9	7	13	32	43	34
9	Treaty United FC	29	7	9	13	29	44	30
10	Finn Harps	29	5	7	17	26	61	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Finn Harps	Athlone Town
UCD	4-5 L	0-0 D
Cobh Ramblers	1-3 L	2-0 W
Bray Wanderers	0-5 L	2-1 W
Longford Town	0-5 L	2-1 W
Cork City	0-3 L	2-3 L
Treaty United FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Wexford FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athlone Town (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Finn Harps

LDWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	UCD Republic of Ireland First Division	2-1	4-5	1	5	L
21/08	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
07/08	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
03/08	Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-5	3	5	L
31/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-3	2	5	L
24/07	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
10/07	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/07	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	1-0	2	9	W
26/06	Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	1-1	3	12	D
19/06	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-3	0	5	L

Athlone Town

DDLWLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
21/08	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
07/08	Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division	2-0	2-1	0	7	W
03/08	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	1-3	2-3	8	4	L
31/07	UCD Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
24/07	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
10/07	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
03/07	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
26/06	Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-1	6	12	D
19/06	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-1	2-2	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Finn Harps vs Athlone Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athlone Town win (52%). Probabilities: Finn Harps 22%, draw 26%, Athlone Town 52%.

How many goals are expected in Finn Harps vs Athlone Town?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Finn Harps 1.04 · Athlone Town 1.71), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Athlone Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.