Basketball · Argentina Liga Nacional · 07/11, 01:35
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs San Martin
Team pages: Boca Juniors · San Martin
Prediction summary
Estimated points
177.8Total
Boca Juniors96.1
San Martin81.6
1X2
Boca Juniors
San Martin
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
San Martin
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
4–2
San Martin
(6 last)
- San Martin97-101Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors83-81San Martin
- Boca Juniors98-95San Martin
- San Martin85-79Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors89-56San Martin
- San Martin69-64Boca Juniors
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1596 · San Martin 1410
| Boca Juniors | San Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 83% | 17% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
177.8 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · +8.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points177.8Boca Juniors 96.1 · San Martin 81.6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1596 vs 1410).
- Boca Juniors is a clear favourite (85% market).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Boca Juniors | San Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 86.5 / 87.5 | 85 / 94.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86.6 / 87.4 | 87.2 / 98 |
| Est. result | 96 | 82 |
Est. total177.8
Line O/U169.5
Diff.8.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 4–0–2 San Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 97-101 | Boca Juniors |
| 28/04/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | Boca Juniors | 83-81 | San Martin |
| 25/04/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | Boca Juniors | 98-95 | San Martin |
| 29/01/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 85-79 | Boca Juniors |
| 02/10/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | Boca Juniors | 89-56 | San Martin |
| 09/05/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 69-64 | Boca Juniors |
Standings · Argentina Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quimsa | 6 | 6 | 0 | 506 | 443 | 12 |
| 2 | Penarol | 6 | 5 | 1 | 493 | 447 | 11 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Comodoro | 9 | 7 | 2 | 689 | 659 | 16 |
| 4 | Atenas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 510 | 498 | 10 |
| 5 | Instituto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 448 | 442 | 10 |
| 6 | Olimpico | 7 | 4 | 3 | 612 | 600 | 11 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 3 | 3 | 529 | 510 | 9 |
| 8 | Independiente de Oliva | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 190 | 3 |
| 8 | La Union Formosa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 319 | 309 | 6 |
| 10 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 3 | 482 | 482 | 9 |
| 11 | Argentino Junin | 6 | 3 | 3 | 460 | 469 | 9 |
| 12 | Racing de Chivilcoy | 8 | 3 | 5 | 647 | 665 | 11 |
| 13 | Ferrocarril Oeste | 6 | 2 | 4 | 492 | 513 | 8 |
| 14 | Lanus | 9 | 3 | 6 | 700 | 727 | 12 |
| 15 | Regatas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 299 | 313 | 5 |
| 16 | San Lorenzo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 305 | 323 | 5 |
| 17 | Obera TC | 5 | 1 | 4 | 367 | 406 | 6 |
| 18 | San Martin | 6 | 0 | 6 | 509 | 571 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boca Juniors | San Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Racing de Chivilcoy | 80-72 W | 123-126 L |
| Argentino Junin | 82-84 L | 79-82 L |
| Olimpico | 80-93 L | 86-106 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Regatas Argentina Liga Nacional |
95-83 | W |
| 24/10 | Racing de Chivilcoy Argentina Liga Nacional |
80-72 | W |
| 22/10 | Argentino Junin Argentina Liga Nacional |
82-84 | L |
| 13/10 | Olimpico Argentina Liga Nacional |
80-93 | L |
| 11/10 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
96-105 | L |
| 08/10 | Obera TC Argentina Liga Nacional |
96-73 | W |
| 01/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
83-94 | L |
| 30/05 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
99-92 | W |
| 26/05 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
78-91 | L |
| 23/05 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
76-88 | L |
San Martin
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Nacional |
72-81 | L |
| 28/10 | Penarol Argentina Liga Nacional |
76-95 | L |
| 21/10 | Olimpico Argentina Liga Nacional |
86-106 | L |
| 11/10 | Argentino Junin Argentina Liga Nacional |
79-82 | L |
| 09/10 | Racing de Chivilcoy Argentina La Liga |
123-126 | L |
| 01/10 | Instituto Argentina Liga Nacional |
73-81 | L |
| 01/05 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
97-101 | L |
| 28/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
81-83 | L |
| 25/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
95-98 | L |
| 20/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Nacional |
68-89 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs San Martin?
Our model gives 85% to Boca Juniors.
How many points are expected in Boca Juniors vs San Martin?
The model estimates 177.8 total points (Boca Juniors 96.1 · San Martin 81.6).