Basketball · Argentina Liga Nacional · 16/11, 01:00
Prediction: San Martin vs Quimsa
Team pages: San Martin · Quimsa
Prediction summary
Estimated points
163.5Total
San Martin79.2
Quimsa84.3
1X2
San Martin
Quimsa
Markets
Under 161.5 points 65%
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Quimsa
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin
4–2
Quimsa
(6 last)
- Quimsa64-79San Martin
- San Martin79-69Quimsa
- San Martin87-68Quimsa
- Quimsa107-84San Martin
- San Martin86-84Quimsa
- Quimsa77-70San Martin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin 1477 · Quimsa 1565
| San Martin | Quimsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
Estimated total (ours)
163.5 points · Bet365 line 161.5 · +2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points163.5San Martin 79.2 · Quimsa 84.3
Over / Under 161.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~155.7 pts · strength 6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Quimsa (rating 1477 vs 1565).
- H2H favours San Martin: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| San Martin | Quimsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.1 / 88.8 | 84.7 / 74 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 74.6 / 78.4 | 80 / 73.2 |
| Est. result | 79 | 84 |
Est. total163.5
Line O/U161.5
Diff.2
Over / Under35% / 65%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin 4–0–2 Quimsa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | Quimsa | 64-79 | San Martin |
| 04/11/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 79-69 | Quimsa |
| 27/02/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 87-68 | Quimsa |
| 20/12/24 Argentina Liga Nacional | Quimsa | 107-84 | San Martin |
| 30/03/24 Argentina Liga Nacional | San Martin | 86-84 | Quimsa |
| 01/12/23 Argentina Liga Nacional | Quimsa | 77-70 | San Martin |
Standings · Argentina Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quimsa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 682 | 606 | 15 |
| 2 | Penarol | 7 | 6 | 1 | 572 | 522 | 13 |
| 3 | Instituto | 8 | 6 | 2 | 623 | 612 | 14 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Comodoro | 11 | 8 | 3 | 858 | 830 | 19 |
| 5 | Atenas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 591 | 553 | 12 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 8 | 5 | 3 | 716 | 666 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpico | 8 | 4 | 4 | 694 | 683 | 12 |
| 8 | Argentino Junin | 8 | 4 | 4 | 623 | 636 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 7 | 3 | 4 | 557 | 561 | 10 |
| 10 | Obera TC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 560 | 582 | 10 |
| 11 | Lanus | 11 | 4 | 7 | 864 | 872 | 15 |
| 12 | Independiente de Oliva | 3 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 267 | 4 |
| 13 | La Union Formosa | 6 | 2 | 4 | 469 | 499 | 8 |
| 13 | Racing de Chivilcoy | 9 | 3 | 6 | 715 | 745 | 12 |
| 15 | Regatas | 7 | 2 | 5 | 513 | 530 | 9 |
| 16 | Ferrocarril Oeste | 7 | 2 | 5 | 576 | 600 | 9 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 7 | 2 | 5 | 472 | 544 | 9 |
| 18 | San Martin | 9 | 2 | 7 | 734 | 787 | 11 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Martin | Quimsa |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 63-90 L | 105-96 W |
| Lanus | 72-81 L | 88-71 W |
| Penarol | 76-95 L | 78-73 W |
| Argentino Junin | 79-82 L | 78-76 W |
| Racing de Chivilcoy | 123-126 L | 68-54 W |
| Instituto | 73-81 L | 88-92 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Quimsa (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
87-84 | W |
| 09/11 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Nacional |
75-42 | W |
| 07/11 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
63-90 | L |
| 30/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Nacional |
72-81 | L |
| 28/10 | Penarol Argentina Liga Nacional |
76-95 | L |
| 21/10 | Olimpico Argentina Liga Nacional |
86-106 | L |
| 11/10 | Argentino Junin Argentina Liga Nacional |
79-82 | L |
| 09/10 | Racing de Chivilcoy Argentina La Liga |
123-126 | L |
| 01/10 | Instituto Argentina Liga Nacional |
73-81 | L |
| 01/05 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
97-101 | L |
Quimsa
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Instituto Argentina Liga Nacional |
88-92 | L |
| 07/11 | Lanus Argentina Liga Nacional |
88-71 | W |
| 31/10 | Penarol Argentina Liga Nacional |
78-73 | W |
| 26/10 | Racing de Chivilcoy Argentina Liga Nacional |
68-54 | W |
| 24/10 | Argentino Junin Argentina Liga Nacional |
78-76 | W |
| 11/10 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Nacional |
105-96 | W |
| 06/10 | Atenas Argentina Liga Nacional |
83-77 | W |
| 04/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Nacional |
94-67 | W |
| 18/06 | Gimnasia Comodoro Argentina Liga Nacional |
88-60 | W |
| 14/06 | Gimnasia Comodoro Argentina Liga Nacional |
77-74 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin vs Quimsa?
Our model gives 64% to Quimsa.
How many points are expected in San Martin vs Quimsa?
The model estimates 163.5 total points (San Martin 79.2 · Quimsa 84.3).
Over or under 161.5 points?
Recent history points to under 161.5 points (65%).