Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 05/11, 02:15

Prediction: CD Aguila vs Santiagueno

Team pages: CD Aguila · Santiagueno

Prediction summary

Estimated points

168.3Total

CD Aguila93.1

Santiagueno75.2

1X2

90% 10%

CD Aguila Santiagueno

Recent form · 10 last

CD Aguila 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLWLW

Santiagueno 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

CD Aguila 6–0 Santiagueno (6 last)

Santiagueno106-126CD Aguila
CD Aguila119-78Santiagueno
Santiagueno82-85CD Aguila
CD Aguila111-55Santiagueno
Santiagueno60-73CD Aguila
Santiagueno73-79CD Aguila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Aguila 1477 · Santiagueno 1401

	CD Aguila	Santiagueno
Our model	72%	28%
Market	94%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 168.3 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points168.3CD Aguila 93.1 · Santiagueno 75.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1477 vs 1401).
CD Aguila is a clear favourite (90% market).
H2H favours CD Aguila: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	CD Aguila	Santiagueno
Points F\|A (Last 10)	81.5 / 86.6	73.5 / 94.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	82.8 / 87.8	69.4 / 95.4
Est. result	93	75

Est. total168.3

Line O/U169.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.01

216.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-23.5)1.83

2 (+23.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 169.51.83

Under 169.51.83

Diff.: 1.3 · Est. total: 168.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
2	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
16:26 +22’	1.01	16.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Aguila 6–0–0 Santiagueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	106-126	CD Aguila
07/10/22 El Salvador Liga Mayor	CD Aguila	119-78	Santiagueno
08/09/22 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	82-85	CD Aguila
21/04/22 El Salvador Liga Mayor	CD Aguila	111-55	Santiagueno
18/03/22 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	60-73	CD Aguila
06/11/21 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	73-79	CD Aguila

Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Isidro Metapan	18	17	1	1693	1344	35
2	A.Lobos BKB	19	14	5	1493	1337	33
3	Santa Ana BC	18	14	4	1560	1435	32
4	Salvadorenos	19	9	10	1476	1478	28
5	Cojutepeque	18	10	8	1394	1274	28
6	CD Aguila	18	9	9	1459	1454	27
7	San Salvador	18	8	10	1538	1565	26
8	Santa Tecla	18	7	11	1397	1454	25
9	Brujos Izalco	18	6	12	1454	1501	24
10	Santiagueno	18	5	13	1364	1661	23
11	Ahuachapan	18	1	17	1405	1730	19

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Aguila	Santiagueno
Ahuachapan	105-89 W	91-87 W
Cojutepeque	68-87 L	61-96 L
Santa Ana BC	80-77 W	60-76 L
Isidro Metapan	76-116 L	48-89 L
Santa Tecla	85-70 W	66-97 L
San Salvador	89-96 L	74-94 L
A.Lobos BKB	52-68 L	79-90 L
Salvadorenos	66-81 L	69-75 L
Brujos Izalco	68-76 L	81-118 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Aguila

WLLLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/11	Ahuachapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	105-89	W
28/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	68-87	L
25/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	80-77	W
18/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	76-116	L
15/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	85-70	W
13/10	San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor	89-96	L
11/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	52-68	L
08/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	66-81	L
04/10	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	68-76	L
03/10	Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor	126-106	W

Santiagueno

LWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/11	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	81-118	L
27/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	66-97	L
25/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	79-90	L
22/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	61-96	L
18/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	60-76	L
16/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	69-75	L
11/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	48-89	L
10/10	San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor	74-94	L
05/10	Ahuachapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	91-87	W
03/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor	106-126	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Aguila vs Santiagueno?

Our model gives 90% to CD Aguila.

How many points are expected in CD Aguila vs Santiagueno?

The model estimates 168.3 total points (CD Aguila 93.1 · Santiagueno 75.2).