Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ogre vs Keila Basket

Team pages: Ogre · Keila Basket

Prediction summary

Estimated points

169.5Total

Ogre92.6

Keila Basket76.9

1X2

87% 13%

Ogre Keila Basket

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Keila Basket 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ogre 3–1 Keila Basket (4 last)

Ogre95-66Keila Basket
Keila Basket71-97Ogre
Ogre85-82Keila Basket
Keila Basket80-75Ogre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre 1428 · Keila Basket 1368

	Ogre	Keila Basket
Our model	70%	30%
Market	91%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 169.5 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points169.5Ogre 92.6 · Keila Basket 76.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ogre (rating 1428 vs 1368).
Ogre is a clear favourite (87% market).
H2H favours Ogre: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ogre	Keila Basket
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.9 / 90.4	75.5 / 90.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.6 / 86.8	72.8 / 87.6
Est. result	93	77

Est. total169.5

Line O/U168.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.02

210.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-15.5)1.83

2 (+15.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 168.51.83

Under 168.51.83

Diff.: 2.75 · Est. total: 171.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02	Pinn 1.05 ★
2	10.50 → 10.50	Bet365 10.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	2
09:04 +46’	1.02	10.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
09:02 +48’	1.05	6.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre 3–0–1 Keila Basket

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/01/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	95-66	Keila Basket
10/10/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Keila Basket	71-97	Ogre
29/12/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	85-82	Keila Basket
03/11/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Keila Basket	80-75	Ogre

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VEF Riga	7	7	0	644	485	14
2	Rigas Zelli	6	6	0	565	442	12
3	Valmiera	7	6	1	642	530	13
4	Ventspils	7	5	2	621	589	12
5	Tartu Ulikool	6	4	2	490	444	10
6	Kalev/Cramo	6	4	2	502	476	10
7	TALTECH	8	5	3	592	588	13
8	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	6	3	3	505	530	9
9	Keila	7	3	4	517	590	10
10	Parnu	5	2	3	387	393	7
11	Ogre	6	2	4	506	526	8
12	Liepajas Lauvas	6	1	5	449	496	7
13	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	7	1	6	527	587	8
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	692	827	10
15	Keila Basket	7	0	7	491	627	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre	Keila Basket
Ventspils	88-92 L	68-85 L
Latvijas Universitate	106-81 W	77-85 L
Rigas Zelli	85-110 L	71-94 L
Kalev/Cramo	93-104 L	77-98 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ogre (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	88-92	L
21/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	78-82	L
16/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	76-69	W
10/10	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	106-81	W
03/10	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	85-110	L
26/09	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	73-92	L
14/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	101-106	L
10/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	93-104	L
18/02	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	83-90	L
14/02	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	76-78	L

Keila Basket

LWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/10	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	82-89	L
24/10	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	77-98	L
20/10	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	60-81	L
11/10	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	68-85	L
04/10	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	77-85	L
29/09	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	56-95	L
25/09	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	71-94	L
13/03	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	88-102	L
11/03	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	93-83	W
06/03	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	83-95	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre vs Keila Basket?

Our model gives 87% to Ogre.

How many points are expected in Ogre vs Keila Basket?

The model estimates 169.5 total points (Ogre 92.6 · Keila Basket 76.9).