Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 25/09, 18:00

Prediction: Valmiera vs Ventspils

Prediction summary

Estimated points

176.5Total

Valmiera93.7

Ventspils82.8

1X2

78% 22%

Valmiera Ventspils

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Ventspils 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Valmiera 4–2 Ventspils (6 last)

Ventspils89-92Valmiera
Valmiera107-92Ventspils
Ventspils79-101Valmiera
Valmiera112-115Ventspils
Ventspils85-99Valmiera
Valmiera93-99Ventspils

Model analysis

Estimated points176.5Valmiera 93.7 · Ventspils 82.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera (rating 1631 vs 1501).
Valmiera is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Valmiera: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Valmiera	Ventspils
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93.2 / 82.4	79.3 / 85.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 83.4	73.2 / 88.8
Est. result	94	83

Est. total176.5

Line O/U172

Diff.4.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 1721.89

Under 1721.84

Diff.: 1.6 · Est. total: 170.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:49

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.15 → 1.15	Pinn 1.15
2	4.53 → 4.53	Pinn 4.53

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	2
18:16 +33’	1.15	4.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera 4–0–2 Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Latvia LBL	Ventspils	89-92	Valmiera
13/05/26 Latvia LBL	Valmiera	107-92	Ventspils
10/05/26 Latvia LBL	Ventspils	79-101	Valmiera
07/05/26 Latvia LBL	Valmiera	112-115	Ventspils
10/03/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ventspils	85-99	Valmiera
12/11/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Valmiera	93-99	Ventspils

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera	1	1	0	82	73	2
2	Kalev/Cramo	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Parnu	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Liepajas Lauvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ogre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ventspils	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Keila Basket	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Keila	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Latvijas Universitate	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Rigas Zelli	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	TALTECH	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	BC Tartu	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VEF Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	1	0	1	73	82	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera	Ventspils
VEF Riga	89-87 W	71-90 L
Keila	96-74 W	84-80 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/09	Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL	82-73	W
08/04	BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL	100-95	W
03/04	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	89-87	W
01/04	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	97-83	W
29/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	67-79	L
23/03	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	83-74	W
18/03	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	105-80	W
14/03	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	96-74	W
12/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	114-94	W
10/03	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	99-85	W

Ventspils

WLLWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	71-90	L
22/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	72-69	W
18/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	54-77	L
14/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	84-109	L
10/03	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	85-99	L
06/03	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	95-83	W
18/02	Liepajas Lauvas Latvia-Estonia BL	89-82	W
13/02	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	78-87	L
08/02	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	81-83	L
07/02	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	84-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera vs Ventspils?

Our model gives 78% to Valmiera.

How many points are expected in Valmiera vs Ventspils?

The model estimates 176.5 total points (Valmiera 93.7 · Ventspils 82.8).