Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: VEF Riga vs Liepajas Lauvas

Team pages: Liepajas Lauvas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.7Total

VEF Riga90.3

Liepajas Lauvas72.4

1X2

90% 10%

VEF Riga Liepajas Lauvas

Recent form · 10 last

VEF Riga 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWWWW

Liepajas Lauvas 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

VEF Riga 5–1 Liepajas Lauvas (6 last)

Liepajas Lauvas74-86VEF Riga
VEF Riga83-71Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas89-80VEF Riga
VEF Riga74-58Liepajas Lauvas
VEF Riga73-48Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas64-86VEF Riga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VEF Riga 1600 · Liepajas Lauvas 1370

	VEF Riga	Liepajas Lauvas
Our model	86%	14%
Market	92%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 162.7 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · +2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points162.7VEF Riga 90.3 · Liepajas Lauvas 72.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VEF Riga (rating 1600 vs 1370).
VEF Riga is a clear favourite (90% market).
H2H favours VEF Riga: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	VEF Riga	Liepajas Lauvas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.8 / 72.1	81.7 / 85.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	92 / 72	80.6 / 81.6
Est. result	90	72

Est. total162.7

Line O/U160.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.02

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-18.5)1.83

2 (+18.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 160.51.83

Under 160.51.83

Diff.: 2.25 · Est. total: 162.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02▲	Pinn 1.03 ★
2	11.00 → 10.50▼	Bet365 10.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	2
19:11 +6’	1.02	11.00
20:12 +4’	1.02▲	10.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
17:48 +16’	1.04	8.14
19:13 +5’	1.03▼	8.36▲
19:50 +25’	1.03▼	8.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VEF Riga 5–0–1 Liepajas Lauvas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	74-86	VEF Riga
04/11/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	VEF Riga	83-71	Liepajas Lauvas
14/12/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	89-80	VEF Riga
05/11/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	VEF Riga	74-58	Liepajas Lauvas
01/05/24 Latvia LBL	VEF Riga	73-48	Liepajas Lauvas
28/04/24 Latvia LBL	Liepajas Lauvas	64-86	VEF Riga

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VEF Riga	3	3	0	286	199	6
2	Valmiera	3	3	0	275	205	6
3	BC Tartu	2	2	0	177	146	4
4	Rigas Zelli	2	2	0	173	144	4
5	Parnu	1	1	0	76	73	2
6	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	2	1	1	167	169	3
7	Kalev/Cramo	2	1	1	152	156	3
8	Ventspils	2	1	1	184	190	3
9	TALTECH	1	0	1	73	79	1
10	Liepajas Lauvas	2	0	2	156	163	2
11	Ogre	1	0	1	73	92	1
12	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	1	0	1	66	89	1
13	Keila	1	0	1	60	90	1
14	Latvijas Universitate	3	0	3	245	306	3
15	Keila Basket	2	0	2	127	189	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VEF Riga	Liepajas Lauvas
Ogre	92-73 W	80-83 L
Latvijas Universitate	104-66 W	102-83 W
Kalev/Cramo	87-72 W	94-97 L
Valmiera	87-89 L	81-95 L
Ventspils	90-71 W	82-89 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: VEF Riga (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VEF Riga

WLWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/09	Keila Latvia-Estonia BL	90-60	W
26/09	Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL	92-73	W
23/09	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	104-66	W
07/04	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	87-72	W
03/04	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	87-89	L
01/04	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	83-97	L
29/03	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	79-67	W
24/03	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	90-71	W
22/03	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	69-72	L
18/03	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	77-54	W

Liepajas Lauvas

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL	83-87	L
26/09	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	73-76	L
14/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	74-86	L
10/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	102-83	W
04/03	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	71-76	L
18/02	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	82-89	L
14/02	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	94-97	L
11/02	Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL	80-83	L
07/02	BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL	77-87	L
06/02	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	81-95	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VEF Riga vs Liepajas Lauvas?

Our model gives 90% to VEF Riga.

How many points are expected in VEF Riga vs Liepajas Lauvas?

The model estimates 162.7 total points (VEF Riga 90.3 · Liepajas Lauvas 72.4).