Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 30/09, 18:00

Prediction: Liepajas Lauvas vs BC Tartu

Team pages: Liepajas Lauvas · BC Tartu

Prediction summary

Estimated points

169.1Total

Liepajas Lauvas80.1

BC Tartu89.1

1X2

26% 74%

Liepajas Lauvas BC Tartu

Recent form · 10 last

Liepajas Lauvas 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLL

BC Tartu 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Liepajas Lauvas 0–6 BC Tartu (6 last)

BC Tartu87-77Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas81-87BC Tartu
BC Tartu81-80Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas63-66BC Tartu
BC Tartu87-84Liepajas Lauvas
Liepajas Lauvas78-84BC Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Liepajas Lauvas 1384 · BC Tartu 1519

	Liepajas Lauvas	BC Tartu
Our model	44%	56%
Market	22%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 169.1 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · +9.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points169.1Liepajas Lauvas 80.1 · BC Tartu 89.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BC Tartu (rating 1384 vs 1519).
BC Tartu is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours BC Tartu: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Liepajas Lauvas	BC Tartu
Points F\|A (Last 10)	83 / 86.1	84.6 / 82.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	80.4 / 82	91 / 83
Est. result	80	89

Est. total169.1

Line O/U159.5

Diff.9.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.20

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+9.5)1.83

2 (-9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.80

Under 159.51.87

Diff.: 8.7 · Est. total: 168.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.36 ★
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	2
09:44 +3’	4.20	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
09:47	4.29	1.16
10:46 +1’	4.39▲	1.16▼
11:23 +24’	4.36▼	1.16▲
12:33 +14’	4.34▼	1.16▲
17:47	4.36▲	1.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Liepajas Lauvas 0–0–6 BC Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	BC Tartu	87-77	Liepajas Lauvas
08/10/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	81-87	BC Tartu
03/01/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	BC Tartu	81-80	Liepajas Lauvas
30/10/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	63-66	BC Tartu
03/09/24 Club Friendlies	BC Tartu	87-84	Liepajas Lauvas
14/01/24 Latvia-Estonia BL	Liepajas Lauvas	78-84	BC Tartu

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VEF Riga	3	3	0	286	199	6
2	Valmiera	3	3	0	275	205	6
3	BC Tartu	2	2	0	177	146	4
4	Rigas Zelli	2	2	0	173	144	4
5	Parnu	1	1	0	76	73	2
6	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	2	1	1	167	169	3
7	Kalev/Cramo	2	1	1	152	156	3
8	Ventspils	2	1	1	184	190	3
9	TALTECH	1	0	1	73	79	1
10	Liepajas Lauvas	2	0	2	156	163	2
11	Ogre	1	0	1	73	92	1
12	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	1	0	1	66	89	1
13	Keila	1	0	1	60	90	1
14	Latvijas Universitate	3	0	3	245	306	3
15	Keila Basket	2	0	2	127	189	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Liepajas Lauvas	BC Tartu
Parnu	73-76 L	89-88 W
VEF Riga	74-86 L	67-76 L
Kalev/Cramo	94-97 L	90-63 W
Valmiera	81-95 L	95-100 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: BC Tartu (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Liepajas Lauvas

WLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	73-76	L
14/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	74-86	L
10/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	102-83	W
04/03	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	71-76	L
18/02	Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL	82-89	L
14/02	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	94-97	L
11/02	Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL	80-83	L
07/02	BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL	77-87	L
06/02	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	81-95	L
28/01	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	96-89	W

BC Tartu

LLLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/09	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	90-63	W
08/04	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	95-100	L
03/04	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	89-81	W
01/04	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	83-86	L
28/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	98-85	W
23/03	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	89-88	W
20/03	Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL	80-71	W
14/03	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	76-78	L
10/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	67-76	L
07/03	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	79-99	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Liepajas Lauvas vs BC Tartu?

Our model gives 74% to BC Tartu.

How many points are expected in Liepajas Lauvas vs BC Tartu?

The model estimates 169.1 total points (Liepajas Lauvas 80.1 · BC Tartu 89.1).