Basketball · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso · 05/09, 01:15
Prediction: Olimpia vs Montevideo
Team pages: Olimpia · Montevideo
Prediction summary
Estimated points
167.7Total
Olimpia88.2
Montevideo79.6
1X2
Olimpia
Montevideo
Recent form · 10 last
Olimpia
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Montevideo
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olimpia
2–2
Montevideo
(4 last)
- Montevideo113-103Olimpia
- Olimpia91-95Montevideo
- Olimpia81-73Montevideo
- Montevideo97-98Olimpia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olimpia 1570 · Montevideo 1593
| Olimpia | Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
167.7 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +2.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points167.7Olimpia 88.2 · Montevideo 79.6
Match keys
- Olimpia is a clear favourite (73% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Olimpia | Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 81.7 / 69.9 | 91.8 / 80.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.8 / 65.8 | 92.6 / 86.6 |
| Est. result | 88 | 80 |
Est. total167.7
Line O/U165.5
Diff.2.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia 2–0–2 Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Montevideo | 113-103 | Olimpia |
| 12/07/25 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 91-95 | Montevideo |
| 22/09/24 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 81-73 | Montevideo |
| 19/07/24 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Montevideo | 97-98 | Olimpia |
Standings · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso · Liga de Ascenso 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1605 | 1519 | 29 |
| 2 | Larre Borges | 18 | 9 | 9 | 1503 | 1481 | 27 |
| 3 | Olivol Mundial | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1276 | 1374 | 24 |
| 4 | Marne | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1359 | 1482 | 24 |
| 5 | Albatros | 18 | 3 | 15 | 1394 | 1577 | 21 |
| 6 | Colon | 18 | 2 | 16 | 1310 | 1567 | 16 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olimpia | Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Stockolmo | 83-66 W | 87-75 W |
| Urupan de Pando | 97-63 W | 82-79 W |
| Olivol Mundial | 61-58 W | 87-84 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Olimpia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olimpia
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Tabare Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
85-62 | W |
| 22/08 | Stockolmo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
83-66 | W |
| 19/08 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
76-63 | W |
| 14/08 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
73-75 | L |
| 11/08 | Urupan de Pando Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
97-63 | W |
| 08/08 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
75-84 | L |
| 01/08 | Lagomar Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
84-69 | W |
| 28/07 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
90-78 | W |
| 25/07 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
93-81 | W |
| 22/07 | Olivol Mundial Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
61-58 | W |
Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Urupan de Pando Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
82-79 | W |
| 27/08 | Larre Borges Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
105-97 | W |
| 23/08 | Colon Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
93-86 | W |
| 19/08 | Olivol Mundial Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
87-84 | W |
| 14/08 | Albatros Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
96-87 | W |
| 06/08 | Marne Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
82-90 | L |
| 29/07 | Stockolmo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
87-75 | W |
| 26/07 | Marne Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
102-67 | W |
| 21/07 | Colon Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
99-74 | W |
| 17/07 | Albatros Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
85-70 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olimpia vs Montevideo?
Our model gives 73% to Olimpia.
How many points are expected in Olimpia vs Montevideo?
The model estimates 167.7 total points (Olimpia 88.2 · Montevideo 79.6).